机构言论和关键事件对国际油价的波及效应研究

Research on the spread effect of institutional statements and key events on international oil prices

国际油价波动已成为影响社会经济的重要因素之一。现有研究多数集中在石油的商品属性上,分析石油商品基本面对油价的影响。随着地缘政治、事故灾难等突发事件的不断发生,国际油价的波动也受到机构言论和关键事件的影响。引入改进后的PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型,对脉冲式事件、台阶式事件和混合式事件这3类较为典型的重大关键事件进行分析。研究发现,机构言论对国际油价的影响主要体现在以相关关键信息引导石油市场走向的影响因素,进而正向或负向影响市场的预期。关键事件对国际油价的影响分为短期影响和长期影响,短期主要影响石油供需基本面,长期则主要对石油产业链主体响应措施产生影响,其中关键事件对国际油价主要是短期影响。

International oil price fluctuation has become one of the important factors affecting social economy.Most of the existing studies focus on the commodity attributes of oil and analyze the impact of commodity fundamentals on oil prices.However,with the continuous occurrence of geopolitics,accidents,disasters,and other emergencies,fluctuations of international oil prices have also been affected by institutional statements and key events.The paper introduces an improved PSR model to analyze such three types of typical key events as pulse events,step events,and hybrid events.It is found that the impact of institutional statements on international oil prices is mainly reflected in the influencing factors that lead the trend of the oil market with relevant key information,which in turn affects market expectations positively or negatively.The impact of key events on international oil prices can be divided into short-term impact and long-term impact.The short-term impact mostly affects the fundamentals of oil supply and demand,while the long-term impact mainly affects the response measures of the main body of the oil industry chain.Most of key events mainly have short-term impact on international oil prices.