基于供给侧结构性改革的能源消费革命实现路径及调控模拟

Realization Path and Regulation Simulation of Energy Consumption Revolution Based on Supply-side Structural Reform

基于供给侧结构性改革对能源消费影响的理论框架和作用路径,构建能源消费调控系统动力学模型,分情景分析和预测资本、劳动力、技术要素调控情景下的能源消费,结果表明:第一,维持GDP增长率历史年均增长趋势6%的情景下,按照现有系统的发展规律,至2030年中国能源消费总量预计将达到67.4573亿吨标准煤;第二,通过供给侧结构性改革,改变资本、劳动力和技术创新要素,均能够使得能源消费总量呈现不同程度的下降,其中经济低速—要素综合调控情景下,基本能够实现在GDP增加的同时完成2030年的政策目标值;第三,高经济增速刺激能源高消费,经济增速对能源消费总量控制目标的完成有显著影响,因此必须在保持经济低速稳定增长的前提下推动能源消费革命。

Based on the theoretical framework and action path of the impact of supply-side structural reforms on energy consumption,this paper constructs a system dynamics model for energy consumption regulation,analyzes and predicts energy consumption under the regulation of capital,labor,and technological factors:Under the scenario where the historical average annual growth trend of GDP growth rate is maintained at 6%,according to the development law of the existing system,China’s total energy consumption is expected to reach 6.74573 billion tons of standard coal by 2030.Through supply-side structural reforms,changes in capital,labor,and technological innovation factors can all reduce total energy consumption to varying degrees.Among them,under the scenario of low economic speed and comprehensive control of factors,the 2030 policy target value will be achieved while GDP increases.High economic growth stimulates high energy consumption,and economic growth has a significant impact on the achievement of the total energy consumption control target.Therefore,the energy consumption revolution must be promoted on the premise of maintaining a low and stable economic growth.