社会化媒体对分析师行为的影响——以东方财富股吧讨论为例

The Influence of Social Media on Analysts’ Behavior:An Empirical Study Based on the Discussion of Stock Forum

以2010—2019年我国A股上市公司的东方财富股吧讨论信息为研究对象,从股吧情绪和股吧意见一致性两方面实证检验了社会化媒体对分析师行为的影响。研究发现,股吧情绪较高、股吧意见较一致的公司会吸引更多的分析师进行跟踪分析,且分析师的盈余预测质量更佳,体现为盈余预测准确度较高及盈余预测的分歧度较小。进一步分析发现,在不确定性较强时,股吧讨论对分析师行为的影响更为明显。从信息传递的视角验证了社会化媒体对资本市场的信息中介——分析师的影响,对社会化媒体在资本市场运行过程中扮演的角色进行了深入的剖析,拓宽了分析师盈余预测行为影响因素的研究范围。

Based on the data of a-share listed companies in China,this paper empirically tests the influence of stock BBS discussion on analysts’ behavior from stock BBS sentiment trend and stock BBS consensus.The study finds that companies with higher stock BBS sentiment trend and more consistent opinions will attract more analysts to conduct follow-up analysis,and will improve the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts,this is reflected in the higher accuracy and smaller divergence of earnings forecast.Further analysis finds that when the uncertainty is strong,the impact of stock BBS discussion on analysts’ behavior is more obvious.This study conforms to the development trend of social media,verifies that social media can affect the allocation of resources in the capital market,and makes an in-depth analysis of the role of social media in the operation of the capital market,it broadens the research scope of the influencing factors of analysts’ earnings forecasting behavior.