税收努力、财政支出与城乡消费差距

Tax Effort,Fiscal Expenditure and the Urban-Rural Consumption Gap

税收努力是地方政府将税收能力转化为财政收入的重要渠道,充足的财政收入才能满足政府提供公共服务的支出需求。利用中国2007—2018年30个省份的宏观数据,测度各省份的城乡居民消费差距的泰尔指数和地方政府的税收努力程度,实证分析税收努力对城乡消费差距的影响及机制,并选择财政支出民生性偏向和宏观税负作为门槛变量,构建面板门槛回归模型进行税收努力对城乡消费差距的非线性影响研究。结果发现:税收努力主要通过增加民生性财政支出规模促进城乡消费差距缩小;税收努力对城乡消费差距的影响伴随着财政支出民生性偏向、宏观税负的提升而呈现显著的非线性负效应,当民生性财政支出占财政支出的比重超过37.4%时,负效应显著提升,而随着宏观税负超过其门槛值时,负效应显著下降。

Tax effort is an important channel for local governments to change tax capacity into fiscal revenue.Sufficient fiscal revenue can meet the expenditure demand of government to provide public services. This paper uses the macro-data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018 to measure the Theil index of the consumption gap between urban and rural residents, and the tax efforts of local governments.The impact and mechanism of tax efforts on the urban-rural consumption gap is analyzed. The propensity of the fiscal expenditure for people’s livelihoodand macro tax burden are chosen as the threshold variables to build a panel threshold regression model so as to study the nonlinear impact of tax effort on the urban-rural consumption gap. The results show that tax effort promotes the narrowing of the urban-rural consumption gap mainly by increasing the scale of fiscal expenditure for people’s livelihood;the impact of tax effort on the urban-rural consumption gaphas a significant nonlinear negative effect with the improvement of the propensity of the fiscal expenditure for people’s livelihoodand macro tax burden. When the fiscal expenditure for people’s livelihood takes more than 37.4% of the fiscal expenditure, the negative effect significantly increases, and with the macro tax burden exceeds the threshold value, the negative effect drops significantly.