税收政策的信贷传导渠道研究——银行资本结构的视角

Research on Credit Channel of Tax Policy——From the Perspective of Bank Capital Structure

依据债务税盾理论,本文分析了所得税作用于银行资本结构进而信贷投放的逻辑,在此基础上应用2004—2013年中、外资银行年度非平衡面板数据,借助2008年企业所得税"两税合并"政策冲击,基于两类银行之间差别化的税率调整以及政策前后两个维度构建双重差分模型,对理论推断进行了实证检验。研究发现:税率下降通过充实银行资本、提高资本质量,促进信贷扩张;实际所得税税率每下降1个百分点,银行信贷增速上升0.73%,按样本银行贷款均值3 000亿元计算,相当于平均每家银行增加信贷投放21.9亿元。本文结论在理论上丰富了财政政策传导渠道的研究,对思考财政和货币政策协调的方式有一定启示。

Based on the debt tax shield theory, we analyze the logic of income tax on bank capital structure and credit supply. Using the annual unbalanced panel data of Chinese and foreign banks during 2004 to 2013, we empirically test the aforementioned theoretical predictions based on a difference-in-difference model constructed according to the 2008 "integration of two taxes" policy, which generates different corporate tax adjustment between two banks and puts into effect from the policy time. Benchmark regression results show that the decline in tax rate has prompted banks to enrich their capital, improve capital quality, and support credit expansion. For every one percentage point drop in the tax rate, the growth rate of bank credit will increase by 0.73%, equivalent to an additional 2.19 billion yuan per bank calculated at the sample mean bank loans of 300 billion yuan. The conclusions of this paper not only enrich the channel of fiscal policy transmission in theory, but also have some implications for thinking about the way of fiscal and monetary policy coordination.