分析师自身乐观性:“成竹在胸”抑或“夸夸其谈”?——基于语音情绪的实证研究

Analyst Optimism:“Rational Behavior”or Just“Talking on Paper”?——An Empirical Study on Analysts\Voice Emotion

本文基于上市公司电话会议音频,利用语音情绪分析技术构建证券分析师自身乐观性的代理变量,实证研究了分析师盈余预测乐观性的产生机理。研究发现:(1)电话会议语音情绪可以较好代理分析师自身乐观性;(2)电话会议上普通分析师的乐观表现存在"夸夸其谈"的成分,而明星分析师则会展现出一定信息优势,更多是"成竹在胸"的体现;(3)分析师所在券商整体乐观预测的氛围可能是造成普通分析师"夸夸其谈"的重要影响因素。

Based on the teleconference audio of listed companies, we construct proxies of analysts’ own optimism by voice emotion analysis technology to study the mechanism of analysts’ optimism in their earnings forecast. The results show that:(1) Voice emotion of teleconference can proxy analysts’ own optimism appropriately;(2) The optimistic performance of ordinary analysts is "exaggerated", while the star analysts’ performance truly shows some information advantages, which is a sign of confidence and readiness;(3) The overall optimistic forecast atmosphere of the securities institution where one ordinary analyst is located may be an important factor causing the "exaggeration"of that analyst.