摘要
当前中国经济已进入新常态,创新型货币政策工具对促进经济发展起着重要作用,其传导效果是否明显成为不断探讨的问题。为更深入了解创新型货币政策工具的传导效果及作用,运用带随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR),选取创新型货币政策工具、固定资产投资额、工业增加值、通货膨胀率等变量,研究创新型货币政策工具对信贷、投资、产出及通胀的影响。最终发现:创新型货币政策工具对利率传导明显,且对中期和长期利率的影响更为显著;创新货币政策工具对贷款、投资、产出和通胀都有明显反应。
At present,China′s economy has entered the new normal.Innovative monetary policy tool plays an important role in promoting economic development.Whether its transmission effect is obvious has been discussed continuously.In order to better understand the transmission effect and role of innovative monetary policy tools,time-varying parameter with stochastic volatility value at risk model is used to select variables such as innovative monetary policy tools,fixed asset investment,industrial added value and inflation rate to study the impact of innovative monetary policy tools on credit,investment,output and inflation.Finally,it is found that innovative monetary policy tools have a significant impact on interest rate transmission,and medium-term and long-term interest rates.Innovative monetary policy instruments have obvious responses to loans,investment,output and inflation.
作者
白中帅
张前程
BAI Zhongshuai;ZHANG Qiancheng(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《沈阳理工大学学报》
CAS
2021年第6期83-91,共9页
Journal of Shenyang Ligong University
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY241)。
关键词
创新型货币政策工具
时变参数向量自回归模型
利率
通货膨胀率
innovative monetary policy tools
parameter with stochastic volatility value at risk model
interest rate
inflation rate
