人口变迁与教育变革——基于第七次全国人口普查公报的社会学思考

Demographic Change and Educational Reform:A Sociological Interpretation Based on the Data from the 7th National Population Census Bulletin

人口结构是一个社会的基础结构,是观察和研判社会整体结构及其变迁的重要指标。把握当下社会结构与变迁的基本性质,是预判未来教育发展趋势的一个重要前提。第七次全国人口普查公报数据表明,我国人口发生了急剧变化,已进入超低生育率、老龄中国、流动中国以及城乡中国的新阶段,将对教育的未来发展产生重大影响。因应这些变化,我国教育应走向高质量发展转型以及新终身教育、新市民教育和新乡村教育建设的新时期。可以预测,在未来相当一段时期内我国将表现为教育资源总量相对过剩与结构性不足同时并存的矛盾。对此,应通过教育质量提升与内涵式发展应对人口红利危机;深度老龄化要求建设一个全新的终身教育体系;流动人口教育问题的根本解决有赖于城乡二元结构问题的最终破解;快速城镇化与乡村振兴新阶段则召唤一种全新的乡村教育形态。

A basic structure of society,the population structure serves as an important indicator for the observation and study of the overall structure of society and its changes.An understanding of the basic nature of the current social structure and its changes is an important prerequisite to predict the future trend of the development of education.According to the 7 th National Population Census,China’s population has changed drastically:China has entered a new era of ultra-low fertility rate,aging population,migrant population,and an increasing rate of urbanization,and this will exert a significant influence on China’s future development of education.In response to these changes,China’s education is supposed to step into a new stage of high-quality development,new lifelong education,new education for citizens,and new rural education.It can be predicted that in a considerable period of time in the future,there will be a contradiction between the relative surplus of total educational resources and the structural deficiency of educational resources in China.Thus,we should deal with the crisis in demographic dividends through the improvement of educational quality and the connotative development of education,build a new system of lifelong education based on the aging population,resolve problems concerning the urban-rural structure to cope with the education for migrant population,and call for a new form of rural education to deal with rapid urbanization and realize rural revitalization.