教育人力资本结构高级化促进经济增长了吗——基于产业结构升级的门槛效应分析

Does Education-Related Human Capital Structure Upgrading Promote Economic Growth--An Analysis of the Threshold Effect Based on Industrial Structure Upgrading

产业结构升级背景下,深入挖掘教育人力资本结构高级化的经济效益尤为重要。基于2005—2019年省级面板数据构建以产业结构升级为门槛变量的门槛效应模型,实证检验了教育人力资本结构高级化对经济增长的门槛效应。研究发现,教育人力资本结构高级化对经济增长具有促进作用,但其作用大小又受到产业结构升级的约束;时间异质性表明,2013年后,第三产业成为第一大产业,教育人力资本结构高级化对经济增长存在的产业结构升级的加速门槛效应得以激活;区域异质性表明,中西部地区产业结构升级使教育人力资本结构高级化对经济增长的促进作用相对较强,东部地区较弱,且东部地区在产业结构高级化的门槛约束下,教育人力资本结构高级化的经济效益呈现出先增后减的"倒U型"非线性特征。据此提出各地区因地制宜稳步推进产业结构升级建议,以最大程度发挥教育人力资本结构高级化的经济效益。

In the background of industrial structure upgrading,it is particularly important to dig into the economic effect of education-related human capital structure upgrading.This study,based on the provincial-level panel data from 2005 to 2019 in China,constructs a threshold effect model by using industrial structure upgrading as the threshold variable,and tests the threshold effect of education-related human capital structure upgrading on economic growth.The results show the following:Education-related human capital structure upgrading helps promote economic growth,but its effect is restricted by industrial structure upgrading;temporal heterogeneity reveals that the tertiary industry,which became the largest industry in 2013,activates the accelerated threshold effect(industrial structure upgrading)that education-related human capital structure upgrading has on economic growth;and regional heterogeneity shows that industrial structure upgrading plays a more significant role in the central and western areas than in the eastern areas in the promotion of the positive effect that education-related human capital structure upgrading has on economic growth,and that restricted by the threshold of the advanced industrial structure,education-related human capital structure upgrading in eastern areas brings"inverted U-shaped"economic effect,which is characterized by increased economic effect at the beginning but decreased economic effect in the end.In conclusion,the authors suggest steadily promoting the industrial structure upgrading in accordance with local conditions to give full play to the promotion of economic growth by education-related human capital structure upgrading.