江西省气象灾害风险管理与案例分析

Jiangxi's Meteorological Disaster Risk Management and Case Analysis

中国是世界上气象灾害最为严重的国家之一,气象灾害损失占自然灾害损失的70%以上,受季风气候影响,江西省降水、气温等主要气象要素时空分布不均,这种不均性分布导致我省气象灾害特别是水旱灾害尤为严重。以全球变暖和经济发展背景下,我省极端事件明显增多事实为基础,总结了目前江西省气象局建立的气象灾害风险管理系统,包括智能网格预报、风险预警业务和预警信息发布。通过分析昌江流域基于风险的暴雨洪涝预警案例,详细阐述灾害风险管理的流程和具体效益。研究表明江西省气象局建立的气象灾害风险管理体系能够有效提高突发性灾害天气的预警准确率和提前量,提升预警信息发布的时效和覆盖率,减少受灾害影响的人员,减轻经济损失可以达40%以上,并且能够产生良好的社会服务效益,保障经济可持续发展,可为其他受气象灾害风险威胁和困扰的省份和发展中国家提供参考。

China is one of the countries with the most serious meteorological disasters in the world,accounting for more than 70%of the country's economic losses associated with natural disasters.Affected by the monsoon climate,the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature in Jiangxi Province are uneven,which leads to severe meteorological disasters,especially flood and drought disasters.In a context of global climate change and economic development,extreme climate events have increased significantly in Jiangxi Province.This paper concludes a countrywide disaster risk management system established by the Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau,which integrates intelligent grid forecasting,risk-based warning tasks and early warning information release.In this paper,a case study is illustrated some of its features through focusing on risk-based flood warning at the catchment scale to discuss the processes and specific benefits of the disaster risk management system throughout Jiangxi.The result showed the countrywide disaster risk management system established by the Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau can reduce casualties and economic losses effectively.The system can improve the accuracy and coverage of early warning message,reduce casualties and economic losses by more than 40%.And it can produce good social service benefits and ensure sustainable economic development.Moreover,it can produce good social and economic benefits and provide reference for other provinces and developing countries threatened and troubled by meteorological disaster risk.