基于DEMATEL的综合需求响应实施效果评价

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of Integrated Demand Response Based on DEMATEL

综合需求响应(IDR)是能源互联网下的一种多能源智能管理模式与系统,是用户深度参与能源市场及系统调控的重要切入点,但由于实施效果的不明确性,影响了相关主体的积极性及IDR的实施与推广。对此,从经济、环境、技术、社会等维度分析了IDR的实施效果,结合已有研究得到初选评价指标,进一步采用DEMATEL方法厘清指标的重要程度并确定指标权重,从各指标的中心度、原因度看,多能源智能管理技术、能源市场稳定性、能源间可替代度是对IDR实施效果影响较大的指标,实施中应优先考虑;最后,以某园区IDR项目效果的评价验证该指标体系的有效性,并针对评价结果提出了建立需求激励机制、完善多能源市场运营模式、加强综合需求响应技术体系构建等对策建议。

Integrated demand response(IDR)is a multi-energy intelligent management mode and system under energy Internet.It is an important entry point for users to deeply participate in the energy market and system regulation.However,due to the unclear implementation effect,it affects relevant agents'enthusiasm and the implementation of IDR.In this regard,the implementation effect of IDR is analyzed from the dimensions of economy,environment,technology and society.Combined with the existing research,the primary evaluation indicators are obtained.The DEMATEL method is used to clarify the indicators'importance and determine the index weight.According to the centrality and cause of each index,multi energy intelligent management technology,energy market stability and energy substitutability are the indicators that have a great impact on the implementation effect of IDR,which should be given priority in the implementation.Finally,the effectiveness of the index system is verified by the evaluation of the implementation effect of IDR project in an industrial park.Some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward based the evaluation results,such as establishing demand incentive mechanism,perfecting multi energy market operation mode,strengthening the construction of comprehensive demand response technology system and so on.