虚拟经济、创新抑制与经济发展动力重塑

Virtual Economy,Innovation Inhibition and Search for a New Driving Force for China’s Economic Development

以金融业和房地产业为代表的虚拟经济是一个"快变量",而实体经济的创新能力提升相对来讲是一个"慢变量",两者之间的时间背离可能会导致经济"脱实向虚"下的创新能力抑制。基于2003~2018年我国283个城市的面板数据,探究虚拟经济冲击、创新驱动和经济发展动力之间的关系,研究结果显示:经济"脱实向虚"并不会直接弱化实体经济发展,但会通过弱化企业创新能力进而抑制实体经济发展,并且这种效应十分显著。机制分析表明,经济"脱实向虚"会通过挤出创新部门的创新性劳动投入和引发工资等要素成本上升等方式抑制企业创新能力。由此,只有优先解决经济"脱实向虚"带来的资源错配和要素成本过快上升等问题,才能够深入实施创新驱动战略,这其中的关键在于构建虚拟经济"快变量"与创新驱动"慢变量"之间的协同发展新机制,重塑经济发展动力。

Virtual economy represented by finance and real estate is"a fast variable",while the improvement of innovation ability in real economy is a"slow variable".This difference may result in innovation inhibition when economy shifts from real to virtual.Based on the panel data of 283 cities in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper explores the relationship between the impact of virtual economy,innovation,and the driving force for economic development.The findings show that economy shifting from real to virtual does not directly weaken real economy but slows down real economy as it weakens corporate innovation,and that this effect is significant.The mechanism analysis reveals that economy shifting from real to virtual inhibits corporate innovation by squeezing out the innovative labor input in innovation departments and increasing the cost of production factors,such as wages.Therefore,only by prioritizing the problems in the process of shifting from real economy to virtual economy such as resource mismatch and fast rise of the cost of production factors can we actually carry out the innovation-driven strategy.The key is to construct a new mechanism of coordinated development between the"fast variable"of virtual economy and the"slow variable"of innovation,so as to reshape the driving force for economic development.