助力“碳达峰、碳中和”战略的路径探索

Exploration of ways to helping"Carbon Peak and Neutrality"Strategy

“碳达峰、碳中和”(以下简称“双碳”目标)是中国未来40年能源革命的两个里程碑,是构建新型能源消费体系的重要阶段。为了回答碳中和是否就意味着放弃化石能源从而实现零碳排放的问题,首先剖析了“双碳”目标的概念,对比分析了中国能源结构与低碳国家的差异,然后从发展路径和发展方向的角度明晰了中国实现“双碳”目标的基本认识,进而提出了协调发展助力实现碳中和的8项举措:①节能提效;②规模化发展新能源;③大力发展天然气产业,提高天然气在一次能源消费结构中的占比;④多样化制氢;⑤加大森林碳汇;⑥大力发展碳捕集、利用与封存技术(CCUS);⑦建设国家级“绿色工厂”;⑧充分发挥碳交易市场的巨大潜力,助力新产业、新工艺不断派生。结论认为:①中国实现碳中和将是一个漫长的过程,不能急于依赖非化石能源替代化石能源来实现,而应该通过调整能源结构、多能互补、多元发展等措施最后再过渡到非化石能源主导的能源结构;②如果上述助力措施能够得以实现,2030年中国能源消费总量可以节约大约17×10^(8) t(标准煤),碳排放量可减少至约74×10^(8) t,届时中国碳排放量达峰的峰值将介于74.16×10^(8)~113.85×10^(8) t。

"Carbon Peaking and Neutrality"(hereinafter referred to as the"dual carbon"goal)are two milestones of the energy revolution in the next 40 years in China and it is an important stage in the construction of building a new energy consumption system.In order to answer the question of whether carbon neutrality means abandoning fossil energy to achieve zero carbon emissions,this paper first analyzes the concept of"double carbon"goal,compares and analyzes the differences between the energy structure in China and other low-carbon countries,and then clarifies the basic understanding of China's realization of"double carbon"goal from the perspective of development path and development direction,Then,eight measures for coordinated development to help achieve carbon neutrality are put forward.(1)Energy saving and efficiency improvement;(2)Large scale development of new energy;(3)Vigorously develop the natural gas industry and increase the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy consumption structure;(4)Diversified hydrogen production;(5)Increase forest carbon sequestration;(6)Vigorously develop carbon capture,utilization and storage technology(CCUS);(7)Build a national"green factory";(8)Give full play to the great potential of the carbon trading market and help the continuous derivation of new industries and processes.The conclusions are as follows.(1)It will be a long process for China to realize carbon neutralization.We should not be eager to rely on non-fossil energy to replace fossil energy,Instead,it should adopt measures such as adjusting energy structure,multi energy complementarity and diversified development,and finally transition to the energy structure dominated by non fossil energy;(2)If the above-mentioned assistance measures can be realized,China's total energy consumption can save about 17×10^(8) t(standard coal)in 2030,and carbon emissions can be reduced to about 74×10^(8) t,by then China's carbon emissions peak value of the volume will be between 74.16×10^(8) t to 113.85×10^(8) t.