世界能源转型大势与中国油气可持续发展战略

World energy trend and China's oil and gas sustainable development strategies

世界能源发展已完成两次重大转换,正在经历从传统化石能源到新能源的第三次重大转换,能源转型发展整体呈现出清洁化、科技化、电气化、智能化四大趋势。在能源转型和“碳达峰碳中和”目标背景下,中国需要加快构建“清洁低碳、安全高效”的能源体系,创新能源学理论研究与能源技术突破。作为能源体系的重要组成部分,油气行业如何全面掌握世界能源发展趋势、落实国家低碳战略要求、深化认识油气行业面临的形势、进一步明确未来石油和天然气的功能定位、实现可持续发展,已成为当前的重大课题。研究结果表明:①中国能源高质量发展面临三大挑战——在长期以煤炭为主体的能源消费结构下,如何实现煤炭清洁高效利用和能源稳妥有序接替;在油气对外依存度持续攀升的情况下,如何保障国家能源安全;在绿色低碳能源革命中,如何抢占能源科技竞争的制高点。②能源转型不仅不是停止发展油气,而且还要大力发展油气,但油气的功能定位将发生转变——石油逐渐转入“原材料化”,是保障国家能源安全的“压舱石”和民生原料用品的“基石”;天然气发展进入“鼎盛期”,是与新能源协同融合发展的“最佳伙伴”。③中国油气行业发展仍需坚持国内稳油增气、大力发展天然气、走出去、创新驱动四大战略,以正确的战略引领油气可持续发展,为保障国家能源安全、服务碳中和国家战略、增进人类福祉“加油争气”。

The world's energy development is now in its third stage of transformation from traditional fossil energy to new energy after the first two major transformation periods.The energy system is developing to be a clean,technology-dependent,electrified,and intelligent one.Under the background of energy transition,carbon peak and carbon neutrality pledge,China needs to speed up the establishment of a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system,and propose a new theory of energy science for increasing the technology innovation.As an important part of energy system,the oil and gas industry should grasp the world energy trend,aim at national low-carbon strategy,understand the situation and confirm the new position of oil and gas,so as to realize the sustainable development.Results were obtained as follows.(1)There are three challenges in China's high-quality energy development:how to make the utilization of coal cleaner and more efficient and replace the current fossil energy in order considering that China has relied on coal as its major energy for a long time,how to ensure national energy security under the climbing dependence on overseas oil and gas,how to win the energy technology competition in the low-carbon revolution.(2)The energy transition is not supposed to stop the development of oil and gas but to promote it greatly.However,there will be some changes in the function of oil and gas.Oil will be mainly used to guarantee national energy security and provide raw materials for people's livelihood.Natural gas will play the role of the best partner for renewable energy in the energy transition.(3)Four strategies are suggested in the paper,including maintaining oil production and improving gas production inside the country,developing natural gas industry greatly,adhering to the Going Out Strategy,and improving the development with innovation.The strategies are believed to support the sustainable development of oil and gas industry,ensure national energy security,support national carbon neutrality goal,and improve human well-being.