基于生命周期理论的美国页岩气产业发展启示

Enlightenment from the USA's shale gas industry development based on the life cycle theory

为了保障我国页岩气大规模高效益开发以及产业高质量快速发展,基于美国页岩气开发技术创新与产业发展的经验,从产业生命周期理论的角度,采用类比分析法,对美国页岩气开发历程进行了全面梳理,划分了美国页岩气产业生命周期并分析了其阶段特征,总结了美国页岩气产业发展的经验和教训。研究结果表明:①美国页岩气革命成功是40多年持续技术攻关的结果,是100多年政策刺激与调控的成果,是资源环境保护与资源效益开发博弈的过程,即便是处于成熟期的美国页岩气产业也会因为新冠肺炎疫情而出现动荡;②我国页岩气产业应以技术突破为前提,根据产业周期特点及时制定产权、管网建设等方面配套政策,持续正视并及时解决开发过程中的环境保护问题;③建议从产业投融资风险识别与管控、勘探开发技术革新、供给侧和需求侧动态适应等方面提升页岩气产业抗风险的能力。结论认为,美国页岩气开发和产业发展的经验、启示甚至教训,有助于我国结合自身情况在不同阶段制定合理策略推动页岩气产业高质量发展。

In order to ensure the large-scale efficient development of shale gas and the high-quality rapid development of shale gas industry in China,this paper comprehensively analyzes the USA's shale gas development process by using the analogy analysis method,based on the industrial life cycle theory and the experience in the innovation of shale gas development technologies and the development of shale gas industry in the United States.Then,the life cycle of American shale gas industry is divided and the characteristics of each stage are analyzed.Finally,the experience and lessons in the development of American shale gas industry are summarized.And the following research results are obtained.First,the success of American shale gas revolution is the result of continuous technological research of more than four decades,the achievement of policy stimulation and regulation of more than 100 years,and a process of game playing between resource environmental protection and benefit resource development.Even the mature shale gas industry in the USA suffers turbulence caused by COVID-19.Second,China's shale gas industry shall take technological breakthroughs as the premise,timely formulate supporting policies in terms of property rights and pipe network construction according to the characteristics of the industrial cycle,and continuously face up to and timely solve the environment protection problems in the process of shale gas development.Third,it is recommended to strengthen the risk resistance capacity of shale gas industry from the aspects of industrial investment and financing risk identification and control,exploration and development technological innovation,and dynamic adaptation of supply side and demand side.In conclusion,American experience,enlightenment and even lessons in shale gas development and industrial development are conducive for China to prepare reasonable strategies of each stage based on its own situations,so as to promote the high-quality development of its shale gas industry.