中国城市创新绩效的差异及动态演进

Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Urban Innovation

研究目标:以城市为单元探求中国城市创新绩效的差异及动态演进趋势。研究方法:位序规模法则、Dagum基尼系数和Markov链方法。研究发现:城市创新绩效总体差异大,基尼系数长期高于0.7,其中组间差异的贡献率高达94%以上。创新绩效中心城市由4个扩大为18个,但城市创新绩效极化现象依旧明显,20%的城市贡献了约80%的创新绩效,约80%的城市创新绩效不足首位城市的5%。平均有74.8%的创新绩效中心、次中心城市位于东部,出现明显分布不平衡现象。城市创新绩效等级向上转移难向下转移易,向上或向下转移具有显著的城市等级异质性和地区异质性,但城市创新绩效等级整体呈上升趋势,各级城市均向首位城市靠拢。由创新绩效边缘城市升为中心城市难度极高且历时久。研究创新:使用了299个城市1991-2018年的长面板数据;本文以首位城市为参照系,将城市分为创新绩效中心、次中心和边缘城市,然后又将其按东中西部地区复合分组进行时空分析。研究价值:揭示了中国城市创新绩效的差异及动态演进趋势,为城市协同创新发展战略及政策的制定提供理论依据。

Research Objectives:To investigate the differences and dynamic evolution of innovation performance in Chinese cities with city as a unit.Research Methodology:Rank-size rule,Dagum Gini coefficient and Markov chain method.Research Findings:The overall variation in innovation performance of cities is large,the Gini coefficient above 0.7 for a long time and specifically the contribution of inter-group differences reaching over 94%.The number of cities at the centre of innovation performance has expanded from 4 to 18,but the polarisation of urban innovation performance remains evident,with 20%of cities contributing about 80%of innovation performance and about 80%of cities contributing less than 5%of the top city’s innovation performance.On average,74.8%of the innovation performance centres and sub-centres are located in the east,showing a clear imbalance in distribution.It is difficult to shift upwards and easy to shift downwards,and there is significant heterogeneity in city rank and regional heterogeneity in upward or downward shifts,but there is an overall upward trend in city innovation performance rank,with cities at all levels moving towards the top city.Moving from a city at the edge of innovation performance to a central city is extremely difficult and time-consuming.Research Innovations:A long panel of 299 cities from 1991 to 2018 is used;cities are divided into innovation performance centres,sub-centres and peripheral cities using the first city as a reference system,and then grouped together in the East,Central and West regions for spatial and temporal analysis.Research Value:A comprehensive analysis of the differences and dynamic evolution of innovation performance in Chinese cities,providing a theoretical basis for the formulation of collaborative urban innovation development strategies and policies.