基于水足迹和LMDI的江苏省农业用水变化驱动力研究

Driving forces of agricultural water use change in Jiangsu Province based on water footprint and LMDI

结合水足迹理论与传统农业用水核算方法,本研究分析了1999—2018年江苏省农业水足迹(CWF)的变化趋势。利用LMDI模型揭示了用水强度、经济和人口对农业水足迹变化的贡献程度。结果表明,江苏省农业水足迹呈现先下降后上升再下降的波动趋势,年均值为55.2 Gm^(3),水稻水足迹占比最大,为40%;江苏省农业生产总值、城镇化率及灌溉效率均随时间呈增长趋势;各驱动力因素对江苏省农业水足迹变化的影响程度为:水足迹经济强度>经济发展>人口规模。经济发展效应是农业水足迹变化的主要贡献因素,而水足迹强度和人口规模对其增长其主要的抑制作用,人口规模对农业用水变化的影响最小。农业水足迹及其驱动因子的分析可为农业发展和资源持续利用提供支撑。

Combined with water footprint theory and traditional agricultural water accounting methods,the trend of agricultural water footprint(CWF)in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2018 was analyzed.The LMDI model was used to reveal the contribution of water intensity,economy and population to the change of agricultural water footprint.The results showed that the agricultural water footprint in Jiangsu Province showed a fluctuating trend of decreasing first,then increasing and then decreasing.The annual average value was 55.2 Gm^(3),and the rice water footprint accounted for the largest proportion of 40%.Agricultural GDP,urbanization rate and irrigation efficiency of Jiangsu Province all showed an increasing trend over time.The influence degree of each driving force factor on the change of agricultural water footprint in Jiangsu Province was:economic intensity of water footprint>economic development>population size.The effect of economic development was the main contributor to the change of agricultural water footprint,while the intensity of water footprint and population size had a major inhibitory effect on its growth,and the impact of population size on the change of agricultural water consumption was the smallest.The analysis of agricultural water footprint and its driving factors could provide support for agricultural development and sustainable utilization of resources.