双积分政策对新能源汽车发展的支撑作用研究

Research on the Supporting Effect of the Dual-Credit Policy on the Development of New Energy Vehicles

我国明确新能源汽车战略导向和阶段性发展目标,并通过财税鼓励和《积分办法》等一系列政策予以保障。文章对双积分政策管理机制和实施情况进行了回顾,并基于行业现实情况,结合覆盖全行业车型产量、技术、历史积分数据的双积分预测数据库,构建评估模型对双积分政策对新能源汽车产业发展的支撑作用进行研究评估。通过模型测算,对2021—2023年中国汽车产业整体实现双积分合规需完成的最小新能源汽车产量进行预测。分析得出2020年后双积分政策对新能源汽车产业发展的影响和支撑作用,为政府制定相关政策法规,健全管理制度,引导汽车产业向低碳节能绿色化发展提供决策支撑。

China clarifies the strategic orientation and phased development goals of new energy vehicles,and guarantees them through series of policies such as fiscal and tax incentives and the dual-credit policy.This article reviews the management mechanism and implementation of the dual-credit policy,and builds a dual-credit forecast database covering the entire model outputs,technology,and dual-credit data based on the industry's reality,and then constructed an evaluation model for the supporting effect of the dual-credit policy on the development of new energy vehicles.Through forecasting the minimum new energy vehicle output that must be completed for the overall dual-credit policy compliance of the Chinese automobile industry from 2021 to 2023,the analysis shows the impact and supporting role of the dual-credit policy on the development of the new energy vehicles after 2020.The conclusions will provide decision support for the government to formulate relevant policies and regulations,improve the management system,guide the automotive industry developing to low-carbon and energy-saving.