基于VAR模型的金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以安徽省为例

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model——A Case Study of Anhui Province

本文采用2000—2019年安徽省的年度数据,构造VAR模型,从金融相关比率(FIR)、金融效率(XL)、固定资产投资增加额(IM)、进出口贸易总额(IE)4个方面分析安徽省金融发展对于经济增长的影响以及影响幅度。研究发现金融发展与经济增长之间存在长期均衡的关系,并且固定资产投资增加额(IM)、进出口贸易总额(IE)和金融相关比率(FIR)能够正向促进经济的增长,金融效率(XL)虽然在短期内不能够促进经济增长,但长期能够促进经济增长。最后对此提出建议和对策。

Based on the annual data of Anhui Province from 2000 to 2019,this paper constructs a VAR model to analyze the impact of financial development on economic growth in Anhui Province from four aspects:financial correlation ratio(FIR),financial efficiency(XL),increase in fixed asset investment(IM)and total volume of import and export trade(IE).It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between financial development and economic growth,and the increase in fixed asset investment(IM),total volume of import and export trade(IE)and financial correlation ratio(FIR)can positively promote economic growth,while financial efficiency(XL)can not promote economic growth in the short term,but can promote economic growth in the long term.Finally,some suggestions and countermeasures are put forward.