两种人口负增长的比较:内涵界定、人口学意义和经济影响

A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth:Connotation,Demographic Characteristics,and Economic Impacts

与以往由外生事件催生的人口负增长不同,受长期低生育率和预期寿命延长驱动的内生性人口负增长将成为未来新的重要人口现象。从人口学意义来看,与外生性人口负增长相比,内生性人口负增长出现之前往往已经积累了较长时间的负增长惯性,而且一旦发生,持续时间较长,并且伴随着人口结构老化,回到正增长域的难度和挑战更大,实现回归后人口正增长的可持续性较低。从经济影响来看,两种人口负增长均存在总量效应,但内生性人口负增长有明确的结构效应和相对稳定的预期效应,并且两者在长波效应上存在差异。未来内生性人口负增长所带来的影响并不都是消极的,也存在积极效应,重点是如何抓住应对窗口期,在消解内生性人口负增长负效应的基础上充分发挥其正效应。

Different from the negative population growth caused by exogenous events in the past,the endogenous negative population growth driven by prolonged life expectancy and long-term low fertility will become a new important population phenomenon in the future.Demographically speaking,compared with exogenous negative population growth,the endogenous one tends to accumulate long-term negative population growth momentum.Once it happens,it lasts longer,is accompanied by population ageing,and is more difficult to convert back to positive growth.For the economic impacts,both of these two kinds of negative population growth have aggregate effect,but the endogenous negative population growth shows a clearer structural effect,a more stable expectation effect,and a long-swing effect which differs from the exogenous one.The looming endogenous negative population growth is not necessarily negative,but may have positive effects.The focus is how to seize the response window period and give full play to the positive effects on the basis of eliminating the negative effects of negative population growth.