空间效应视角下经济集聚与制造业升级——基于283个城市面板数据的实证研究

Economic Agglomeration and Manufacturing Industry Upgrading Based on the Spatial Perspective——An Empirical Study Based on 283 Cities Panel Data

在分析经济集聚影响制造业升级的理论基础上,结合“双循环”战略的现实背景,基于283个地级及以上城市面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型和中介效应模型,在空间效应视角下研究了经济集聚对制造业升级的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:经济集聚与本地区制造业生产率和盈利能力呈“倒U”型关系;与邻近地区制造业生产率水平呈“倒U”型关系,与盈利能力呈“U”型关系。同时,经济集聚对制造业升级的影响存在区域异质性和时间异质性。利用指数衰减空间权重矩阵进一步研究发现,经济集聚对邻近地区制造业生产率和盈利能力的有效作用范围分别为450km和550km。本土市场效应、物质资本积累效应、劳动力成本效应是经济集聚影响制造业升级的作用机制;其中,本土市场效应存在负向作用,物质资本积累效应、劳动力成本效应存在正向作用。本文以空间效应视角为切入点,为理解“双循环”战略下经济集聚与制造业升级提供了新的思考方向,对城市发展和制造业优化升级具有一定的启示意义。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of urban economic agglomeration on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,combined the realistic background of“double circulation”strategy.Based on panel data of 283 cities at prefecture level and above in China,the paper empirically studied the impact of urban economic agglomeration on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and its mechanism by using the spatial Durbin model and the mediation effect model.The relationship between urban economic agglomeration and productivity and profitability of local manufacturing industry is inverted U shape.It has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the productivity level of manufacturing industry in neighboring areas,and a U-shaped relationship with the profitability.At the same time,the influence of urban economic agglomeration on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry has regional and temporal heterogeneity.Using the exponential decay space weight matrix to further study,it is found that the effective range of urban economic agglomeration on the productivity and profitability of manufacturing industry in adjacent areas is 450km and 550km respectively.Local market effect,material capital accumulation effect and labor cost effect are the action mechanisms of urban economic agglomeration influencing the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry Among them,local market effect belongs to the negative effect,material capital accumulation effect and labor cost effect belong to positive effect.From the perspective of spatial effect,this paper provides a new thinking direction for understanding economic agglomeration and manufacturing industry upgrading under the double-cycle strategy,and has certain enlightenment significance for urban development and manufacturing industry optimization and upgrading.