中国参与国际气候变化谈判30年:历史进程及角色变迁

China’s Participation of International Climate Change Negotiations for 30 Years:History and the Evolution of China’s Role

综合考虑中国在国际气候变化谈判中的政策立场、国内应对气候变化行动的演变以及全球气候治理进程的重要时间节点等三个指标,30年来,中国参与国际气候变化谈判的角色经历了从积极参与者、积极贡献者到积极引领者的转变。在这一历史进程中,中国从积极参与者转变为积极贡献者是量变,从积极贡献者转变为积极引领者是质变。中国参与国际气候变化谈判的角色发生质变有诸多原因。从国际层面看,气候变化对全球生态安全的威胁日益严峻,世界经济格局发生深刻调整,全球温室气体排放格局发生重大变化,绿色低碳发展已成世界发展大趋势,这四大因素推动中国在国际气候变化谈判中发挥引领作用。从国家层面看,当前中国经济从高速增长转向高质量增长,气候变化对中国的不利影响日益上升,促使中国在国际气候变化谈判中发挥引领者作用。从领导人层面看,中国领导人的"天下"情怀和环境意识助推中国在国际气候变化谈判中发挥引领作用。与此同时,必须清醒地认识到,当前中国在国际气候谈判中的议程设置能力不够强,在全球气候治理体制改革中的规则制定权和话语权不够大,在全球气候治理领域构建中国话语和中国叙事体系的水平不够高。为此,中国应进一步统筹好气候治理、气候外交、气候安全和气候传播这四大领域的工作,四位一体,协同推进,有力引领国际气候变化谈判和全球气候治理。

From the perspective of the evolution of China’s position in international climate change negotiations,its domestic climate actions and global climate governance,China played different roles in last 30 years’ participation of international climate change negotiations,namely,from an active participant to an active contributor and finally to an active torchbearer. Shifting from an active participant to an active contributor is a quantitative change,while shifting from an active contributor to an active torchbearer is a qualitative or substantial change. Many factors contributed to the qualitative change. Internationally,the increasing threat to global ecological security arises from climate change,the fundamental adjustment of international economic configuration,the substantial change of international configuration of greenhouse gas emissions,and the intensified global trend of green and low carbon development together pushed China to play the role of torchbearer. Nationally,the change of China’s development stage,namely,shifting from pursuit of high GDP growth rate development to high quality development and climate change’s increasing negative impact on China contributed to China’s bigger role as an active torchbearer. Individually, Chinese leaders’ rising global vision and environmental awareness also matter in the sense that they are most powerful decision makers. However,it must be soberly recognized that China’s role as a torchbearer is preliminary. China’s capability to set agendas in international climate change negotiations and power to make the rules and have the last say in the reform of global climate governance regime,and the capability to construct Chinese discourse in global climate governance are quite limited. Looking ahead,China should promote overall progress in climate governance,climate diplomacy,climate security and climate communication so as to lead international climate negotiations and global climate governance in a more powerful way.