摘要
以西南地区近50年水文气象观测资料和实际灾情资料为基础,选取标准化降水蒸散发指数、土壤相对湿度指数、标准化径流指数,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和线性趋势法,结合不同指数对应的干旱频率分布,分析西南地区气象干旱、水文干旱及农业干旱时空变化规律。结果表明:近50年来,西南地区降雨量、河流径流量、土壤相对湿度均呈减少的趋势,干旱呈明显加重的趋势,其中21世纪以来旱情发生频率明显增加。建议采取积极的工程或非工程措施,推动早期预警、中期监视、后期评估的旱情综合评估预警体系建设,以应对不利的干旱情势。
Drought occurs frequently in Southwest China,which seriously threaten the social economy and ecological environment.In this paper,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,soil moisture index and standardized runoff index were chosen to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of meteorological drought,hydrological drought and agricultural drought in Southwest China by M-K trend test method and linear trend method based on nearly 50 years hydro-meteorological data and the actual drought disaster data.Results show that rainfall,river runoff,and soil moisture decrease obviously,and drought frequency increases significantly since 21st century.It is urgent to carry out engineering and non-engineering measures and establish comprehensive drought assessment and early warning system which contains early warning,mid-term surveillance,and later evaluation,in order to take solve severe drought trend.
作者
赵兰兰
闻童
赵兵
石朋
ZHAO Lanlan;WEN Tong;ZHAO Bing;SHI Peng(Information Center(Hydrology Monitor and Forecast Center),MWR,Beijing 100053,China;Irrigation and Drainage Development Center,Beijing 100053,China;Administration Bureau of Nanwan Reservoir in Xinyang,Xinyang 464031,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resource,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期91-95,59,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502406)。
关键词
标准化降水蒸散发指数
标准化径流指数
土壤相对湿度指数
干旱
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
standardized runoff index
soil moisture index
drought
