拜登政府中东政策框架初探——内容、动因、制约

A Probe into the Biden Administration’s Middle East Policy Framework

拜登政府的中东政策根植于美国持续从中东"战略收缩"。为了以体面的方式抽身中东,助推美国全球战略重心转向亚太,打造"建设性的伊朗",迎合国内建制派精英需要,拜登政府在中东正致力于与伊朗重谈核协议、结束战争和管控冲突、重塑与盟友关系、推行"价值观外交"。在一系列政策推进过程中,拜登政府注重回归传统外交手段,清晰划分竞争与合作,突出多边主义和价值观的工具性,并尝试对中东实行各类"再平衡"。然而,美国自身实力下滑使其难有足够精力掌控中东,重返伊核协议前景仍不明朗,对盟友管控愈发有心无力,中东破碎的安全环境也可能拖累美国,制约其政策的实施效果。为有效应对拜登政府的中东政策给中国带来的多重挑战,中国需与地区国家加深合作,在中东发挥更大建设性作用。

The Middle East policy of the Biden administration is rooted in America’s continued“strategic retreat”from the Middle East.In order to get out of the Middle East with dignity,help to promote America’s global strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific region,forge a“constructive Iran”,and cater to the needs of domestic establishment elites,the Biden administration has worked to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran,end wars and manage conficts,rebuild alliance and pursue a“valuebased diplomacy”in the Middle East.In a series of moves to implement this policy,the Biden administration has focused on returning to traditional diplomacy,clearly delineating competition and cooperation,emphasizing the instrumentality of multilateralism and values,and attempting various“rebalancing”approaches to the Middle East.However,the decline of its own power makes it hard for the U.S.to have enough energy to dominatethe Middle East,the prospect of its returning to the Iranian nuclear deal remains uncertain,the U.S.is increasingly unable to control its allies,and the fractured security environment in the Middle East may also hamper the U.S.and restrict the implementation of its policies.To effectively deal with the multiple challenges brought to China by the Biden administration’s Middle East policy,China should deepen its cooperation with the regional countries and play a bigger constructive role in the Middle East.