高速公路改扩建施工期车辆强制变道持续时间研究

Vehicle Mandatory Lane-Changing Duration during Highway Reconstruction and Expansion Period

高速公路改扩建施工期间采用封闭部分行车道、边施工边运营的措施将导致车辆在进入施工路段前发生强制变道,易造成追尾、侧向碰撞等交通事故。为分析车辆进入施工路段前的强制变道行为,设计了驾驶模拟实验并采集了变道特征点的时间、空间数据。针对数据特点,提出Log-rank统计检验和Cox风险比例模型的生存分析方法,并对强制变道持续时间进行了分析。结果表明:当施工路段位于右转圆曲线时,驾驶员强制变道行为发生在更靠近施工路段位置,3种线形条件下驾驶员均在进入上游过渡段后才完成变道行为。Log-rank检验结果表明:不同施工路段线形条件下的车辆强制变道持续时间显著不同,同时生存曲线估计提供了不同情况下强制变道行为持续时间的75%分位数。Cox模型结果表明:施工路段位于右转圆曲线时车辆强制变道持续时间更短,当施工路段位于右转圆曲线时强制变道行为结束的瞬时概率相比直线路段高75.49%。

During the highway reconstruction and expansion period,the measures of closing part of traffic lanes and operating-while-construction would cause mandatory lane change before entering the construction section,which was easy to cause traffic accidents such as rear end collision and lateral collision.In order to analyze the mandatory lane change behavior of vehicles before entering the construction section,a driving simulation experiment was designed and the time and space data of lane change feature points were collected.According to the characteristics of the data,a survival analysis method based on Log-rank statistical test and Cox risk ratio model was proposed,and the mandatory lane-changing duration was analyzed.The results show that when the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve,the driver's mandatory lane change behavior occurs closer to construction section.Under the three road alignment conditions,the driver completes the lane change behavior only after entering the upstream transition section.Log-rank test results show that the duration of mandatory lane-changing behavior under the alignment conditions of different construction sections is significantly different,and the survival curve estimation results provide 75% quantiles of the duration of mandatory lane-changing behavior under different conditions.Cox model results show that the lane-changing duration is shorter when the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve.When the construction section is located in the right turn circular curve,the instantaneous probability of the end of mandatory lane change is 75.49% higher than that of straight-line section.