中国新旧动能转换的空间分异及影响因素研究

Spatial Differentiation and Affecting Factors of Old-New Growth Driver Conversion in China

加快新旧动能接续转换是构筑现代化经济体系的根本性举措,对于实现高质量发展具有特殊战略意义。以中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究单元,基于客观赋权法,从增长动力转向、体制机制转轨、经济结构转型、发展方式转变等4个维度构建评价指标体系,综合分析全国各省份新旧动能转换水平及其空间格局特征,并利用地理探测器解析中国新旧动能转换的主导影响因素。结果表明:(1)科技创新引领是中国推进新旧动能转换的基本逻辑;(2)中国新旧动能转换水平空间差异明显,并呈现一定的东—中—西梯度递减格局,较高水平省区主要分布在长江经济带和东部沿海地区;(3)中国新旧动能转换水平空间差异的主导因子包括人力资本水平、对外开放水平及消费需求水平等;(4)东、中、西三大地区新旧动能转换的主导因子及交互因子存在一定差异,据此可采取不同的发展路径加快新旧动能转换。

Accelerating the continuous transformation of new and old kinetic energy is a fundamental measure to build the modern economic system,which also has a special strategic significance for China to achieve high-quality development.Taking 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China as research units,this paper constructs evaluation indicator system from growth dynamics,institutional mechanisms,economic structure and development patterns,etc.It applies objective weighting method to analyse the level of old-new growth driver conversion and its spatial pattern in China,and geographic detector to analyse its main influencing factors.The result shows that:1)Scientific and technological innovation is the basic logic to promote the old-new growth driver conversion in China;2)The spatial difference of old-new growth driver conversion is obvious in China,it presents a certain gradient decreasing pattern from the eastern China to the western China.Provinces with the higher level are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the eastern coastal areas;3)The leading factors of the spatial difference of old-new growth driver conversion in China include human capital level,opening-up level and consumption demand level,etc.4)There are some differences in the dominant factors and interactive factors of old-new growth driver conversion in the eastern,central and western China,so different development paths can be adopted to speed up the process of old-new growth driver conversion.