基于DPSIR模型的浙江省海域承载力的评价分析

Evaluation Analysis of Marine Carrying Capacity in Zhejiang Province Based on DPSIR Model

文章基于DPSIR框架模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面构建包含10个要素层、33个代表性指标组成的海域承载力评价指标体系,运用熵值法对浙江海域承载力进行动态时序分析,利用耦合协调度模型衡量浙江海域承载力系统的综合协调程度,并对海域承载力与经济发展要素进行拟合分析。研究发现:(1)除受2008年金融危机影响的年份外,2006—2016年浙江省海域承载力水平总体上扬趋势明显,响应和驱动力指标值对海域承载力影响明显。(2)浙江海域承载力系统耦合协调度偏低但呈现稳步上升的态势,系统耦合协调度偏低是制约海域承载力的障碍性因素。(3)经济发展与海域承载力呈显著正相关,表明产业结构优化、合理的经济布局是海域承载力提升的驱动力。最后提出相应的对策建议。

Based on DPSIR framework model,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of marine carrying capacity including 10 factor layers and 33 representative indicators from five aspects of driving force,pressure,state,influence and response.By the means of entropy method and coupling coordination model,this paper quantitatively depicts the development and changes of marine carrying capacity of Zhejiang from 2006 to 2016,measures its coordination degree and carries out the fitting analysis between marine carrying capacity and economic development.The results show that:1)Except for the years affected by the financial crisis in 2008,the marine carrying capacity of Zhejiang has an obvious upward trend from 2006 to 2016,the driving force and response indexes are significantly improved in keeping with the marine carrying capacity.2)The coupling coordination degree of marine carrying capacity system is at low level,which is an obstacle factor restricting the marine carrying capacity,but it shows a steady rising trend.3)There is a significant positive correlation between economic development and marine carrying capacity.The optimization of industrial structure and rational economic distribution are the driving forces for the improvement of marine carrying capacity.In view of the above problems and conclusions,the paper gives corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.