西部地区多维轨道交通与新型城镇化协同发展演化

Coordinated Development and Evolution of Multidimensional Rail Transit and New Urbanization in Western China

多维轨道交通系统的构建对提升区域经济水平、推动区域一体化进程、提高新型城镇化发展质量具有重要意义。基于西部地区12个省份,构建多维轨道交通与新型城镇化评价指标体系,运用数据拟合、Kendall及哈肯模型,分阶段对西部地区多维轨道交通与新型城镇化协同发展演化关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)西部地区多维轨道交通与新型城镇化系统存在发展水平较低,但协同度较高的特征。(2)新型城镇化控制着多维轨道交通与新型城镇化系统协同演化的路径与方向,两系统具有长期的均衡性与稳定性。(3)多维轨道交通与新型城镇化协同发展处于中级协同阶段且区域梯度差异明显。(4)2010—2014年多维轨道交通与新型城镇化协同发展的演化形式为中级协同阶段向高级协同阶段演化,2014—2018年突变为初级协同阶段向中级协同阶段演化,西部地区两系统协同发展已进入更高级的演化形式。

The construction of multi-dimensional rail transit system is of great significance to improve the level of regional economy,promote the process of regional integration and improve the quality of new urbanization.Based on 12 provinces and cities in Western China,this study constructs the evaluation index system of multi-dimensional rail transit and new urbanization,and analyzes the evolutionary relationship between multi-dimensional rail transit and new urbanization in Western China in stages by the means of data fitting,Kendall and Haken Model.The results show that:1)the development level of multi-dimensional rail transit and new urbanization system in Western China is low,but the coordination degree is high.2)New urbanization controls the path and direction of the co-evolution of multi-dimensional rail transit and new urbanization system,and the two systems presents the characteristics of long-term equilibrium and stability.3)The coordinated development of multi-dimensional rail transit and new urbanization is in the intermediate stage,and the regional gradient difference is obvious.4)From 2010 to 2014,the coordinated development of multidimensional rail transit and new urbanization evolves from intermediate coordination stage to advanced coordination stage,and from 2014 to 2018,it changes from primary coordination stage to intermediate coordination stage.The coordinated development of two systems in Western China has entered a higher evolution form.The research conclusion aims to provide reference and suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of rail transit and new urbanization in Western China.