贸易壁垒、贸易协定与中国制造业出口网络演化

Trade Barriers,Trade Agreements and the Evolution of China’s Manufacturing Export Network

自加入WTO以来,中国已经成为全球最大的贸易国,极大促进了中国经济的快速增长。但是现有文献在外部冲击对中国制造业出口网络扩张过程的作用研究仍然不足,而这对于中国对未来贸易发展方向的判断十分重要。文章基于UN Comtrade的数据,通过计量模型分析贸易壁垒、贸易协定对中国出口网络演化扩张的影响。研究发现:第一,中国在加入WTO以后,其贸易总量和市场数量迅速增加,逐渐成为世界上最重要的贸易国家之一,其中贸易经验的作用非常重要;第二,目的国贸易壁垒抑制了中国厂商对其进一步市场扩张,并促使中国企业更加依赖出口经验来规避因贸易壁垒造成的额外成本,加深了中国出口市场"路径依赖"的情况;第三,贸易协定会促进中国向目的国市场拓展,会削弱贸易经验的影响,促使中国出口市场"路径突破"。基于研究结论,文章提出以下建议:(1)鼓励企业拓展贸易业务,旨在学习出口经验,尤其是重要贸易节点国家和地区的经验;(2)通过增加自由贸易协定来拓展新的贸易市场,从而打破可能由出口经验不足导致的"路径锁定"问题;(3)中国针对现在频发贸易壁垒不用过分慌张,中国企业可以依靠已有的出口经验来部分弥补贸易制裁的损失,从而降低出口风险。

China has become the world’s largest trading nation.However,the existing literatures on the effect of external shocks on the expansion process of China’s manufacturing export network is still insufficient,which is very important for trade policy.Based on the data of UN Comtrade,this article analyzes the influence of trade barriers and trade agreements on the expansion of China’s export network through an econometric model.It’s found that:Firstly,China has gradually become one of the most important trading countries in the world,in which trade experience plays a very important role.Secondly,trade barriers of destination countries will inhibit the export expansion,and prompt to rely more on export experience to avoid additional costs caused by trade barriers.Thirdly,trade agreements with the export destination country can promote export of new products and existing products,and weaken the influence of trade experience,which can break the original export experience.Based on the conclusions of the article,it’s suggested that:1)Government should encourage Chinese firms to expand their trade business,which aims to learn export experience,especially in important trade node countries and regions.2)It’s necessary to expand new trade markets by the means of the increase of free trade agreements,in order to deal with the question of original export experience.3)In addition,China can export new products to target countries,which can deal with the frequent trade barriers and the loss of trade sanctions.