中国县域粮食产量的时空格局及其与经济发展的空间关系

Spatial-temporal Patterns of Grain Output and Its Spatial Relationship with Economic Development at the County Level in China

粮食是人类赖以生存的基本必需品,为区域经济发展提供了物质基础。研究粮食生产时空格局及其与经济发展的关系,对全面认识当前中国粮食安全,把握粮食生产与区域经济协同发展以及制定差异化的粮食政策有着重要的现实意义。以中国2019个县域为研究对象,基于2000—2017年各县统计数据,借助空间自相关分析、重心转移模型、CGE指数等方法,对中国县域粮食产量的时空格局及其与经济发展的空间关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)中国人均粮食产量的空间格局存在明显的地域分异特点,缺粮区集中在青藏区、黄土高原区和华南区,余粮区集中在东北区、黄淮海区、蒙新区和长江中下游区。(2)中国人均粮食产量变化趋势以增加为主,以东北区和黄淮海区为代表的北方区域增加显著,以长江中下游区和华南区为代表的南方区域降低明显;随着时间的推移,人均粮食产量的空间集聚特征愈加明显,粮食生产地域分工更加清晰。(3)中国人均粮食产量与经济发展重心呈现分离态势,人均粮食产量重心向东北移动,而经济重心向西推进。两者在空间上整体欠平衡,但随着时间的推移,粮食与经济协调性有所改善,改善的区域主要集中在长江中下游区西部、西南区的东部以及黄土高原西部等地。

Grain is not only the basic necessity of human survival,but also the material basis for regional economic development.Analyzing the spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and its relationship with economic development has important significance for comprehensive understanding of current grain security in China.It’s important to understand the coordinated development of grain production and regional economy,and formulate differentiated grain policies.Based on the statistic data of each county between 2000 and 2017,the study takes 2019 counties in China as objects.Using the spatial autocorrelation analysis,gravity center model and CGE index,it analyzes the regional pattern of grain output and its spatial relationship with economic development at the county level in China.The results show that:1)There are obvious regional differentiation characteristics in the spatial pattern of per capita grain output in China.The grain deficit areas are concentrated in Qinghai-Tibet region,Loess Plateau region and south China.The surplus grain regions are concentrated in northeast region,Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe region,Mongolia-Xinjiang region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.2)The trend of per capita grain output change in China is mainly increased,especially in northeast China and Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe region,but it shows decreasing trend in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south China.The spatial agglomeration characteristics of per capita grain output in China are obvious.The regional division of labor of grain production has become clearer over time.3)The gravity center of per capita grain output and the gravity center of economy in China are separated.The gravity center of per capita grain output moves to the northeast,while the gravity center of economy moves westward as a whole.It presents spatial unbalanced development in the grain production and economy in China.The consistency of grain production and economic development has improved as time goes on.The areas which need to be improved are concentrated in the west of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the east of southwestern region,and the west of Loess Plateau in central China.