国家级贫困县政策的减贫效应及其空间异质性

Spatial Heterogeneity on the Contribution of National Poverty-stricken County Policy to Economic Growth

设定国家级贫困县是我国近40年来扶贫工作的重要举措,评估现行扶贫政策的脱贫减贫效应及区域差异性并剖析原因,可对我国实现脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接、缩小城乡差距提供理论和政策参考。文章利用OLS和GWR模型,在综合考虑县域空间资源禀赋、社会和经济发展基础等因素的影响下,分析国家级贫困县政策对县域经济的增长作用及其空间差异性和原因。结果表明:设立国家级贫困县的扶贫政策,对县域经济增长具有显著的作用,但影响力存在空间异质性,呈现出从我国西北向东南递减、在部分中部偏东南地区出现抑制作用的圈层结构;土地资源禀赋、社会基础、经济发展基础对县域经济增长也具有显著的空间异质性影响;其成因可由县域间发展阶段差异而导致的主导生产要素不同、市场调控与政策干预力度差异等解释。为有效解决新时期精准扶贫稳定支持、缩小城乡差距,政策制定应兼顾地方经济基础和生产条件,因地制宜实施政策扶持和市场引导相结合的行动机制。

During the past 40 years,national poverty-stricken county policy(NPCP)has played an important role in poverty alleviation across China.Existing researches focus on the influence of NPCP to poverty alleviation globally.However,the impact of NPCP is not spatially consistent.This study aims to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of the contributions achieved by NPCP and reveal the fundamental reasons behind it.Based on the ordinary least squared(OLS)model together with the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,taking into account resource,social and economic factors in 1147 counties,this study explores the impact of NPCP on the economic contribution,and the reasons of spatial heterogeneity.The results demonstrate that NPCP is overall significantly correlated with economic growth,but the positive influences gradually decreased from the northwest to the southeast and NPCP even presents a negative effect in some central and southeast regions.The spatial heterogeneity of the impact is mainly due to the differences in the dominant production factors,market regulation,and policy intervention intensity across counties.The remainder factors in three aspects(land,society and economy)also contribute to the variability in county’s economic growth.Based on these findings,it puts forward that government should pay more attention to the local economic development and production conditions when policies are issued.Furthermore,differentiated mechanisms such as market guidance or policy support should be implemented to effectively achieve targeted poverty alleviation strategy and narrow the urban-rural gap.