贵州省烤烟种植主要气象风险因素的时空分布特征分析

Spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological risk factors for flue-cured tobacco growing in Guizhou Province

为明确贵州省烤烟种植主要气象风险因素及时空分布特征,利用贵州省64个县(区市)2008—2017年逐日平均温度、最高温度和降雨量等数据,对不同县区烤烟不同生育期的主要气象风险因素进行评价,并采用聚类分析法对烤烟种植气象风险因素进行归类。结果表明:该区域烤烟烟叶生产主要的气象风险为还苗-伸根期低温(4月下旬—5月中旬日平均温度≤13℃)、成熟期高温(7月中旬—8月下旬日最高温度≥35℃)、成熟后期低温(8月上旬—9月上旬日平均温度≤20℃)、暴雨(日降雨量≥50 mm);还苗-伸根期和成熟后期低温风险主要发生在贵州西部毕节威宁、大方,六盘水水城,黔西南普安,其中毕节威宁的低温风险最高,前期(4月下旬—5月中旬)低温天数多年均值为12 d,后期(8月上旬—9月上旬)高达40 d;成熟期高温风险主要发生在铜仁和黔东南地区,其中铜仁沿河高温风险最高;烤烟生育期内雨量充沛但年际间差异大,西南部和东部地区降雨量显著高于中部,中部地区仅在个别年份发生干旱,最长无雨日数为10~15 d;暴雨集中发生在安顺及周边县区,年均暴雨日数4 d左右,年均暴雨降雨量大于300 mm;铜仁松桃面临暴雨和成熟期高温双重风险。

In order to clarify the main meteorological risk factors and their spatial and temporal distributions for flue-cured tobacco growing in Guizhou Province,daily average temperature,maximum temperature and rainfall data of 64 counties(districts or cities)in Guizhou Province from 2008 to 2017 were gathered.The main meteorological risk factors of flue-cured tobacco at different growth stages in different counties and districts were evaluated using cluster analysis method to classify the meteorological risk factors.The results showed that the main meteorological risks were low temperature from the shoot restoring stage to the root extending stage(average daily temperature≤13℃from late-April to mid-May),high temperature at the mature stage(the highest daily temperature≥35℃from mid-July to late-August),low temperature at the late mature stage(average daily temperature≤20℃from early-August to early-September)and heavy rain(daily rainfall≥50 mm).The risk of low temperature from the shoot restoring to the root extending stage as well as the late mature stage mainly occurred in western Guizhou,including Weining and Dafang in Bijie,Shuicheng in Liupanshui,and Pu’an in Qianxinan.Among them,Weining in Bijie had the highest risk of low temperature whose average number of low temperature days in the early period(from late April to mid-May)was 12 days and was as high as 40 days in the latter period(from early August to early September).The risk of high temperature at the mature stage mainly occurred in Tongren and Qiandongnan.Among them,the risk of high temperature for Yanhe in Tongren was the highest.Within the growth stages of flue-cured tobacco,the rainfall was abundant,but the inter-annual differences were large.The rainfall in the southwest and the eastern regions was significantly higher than that in the central region.The central region only experienced drought in a few years with the longest consecutive rain-free period of 10-15 days.Heavy rains occurred in Anshun and its surrounding counties.The annual average number of rainstorm days was about 4 days,and the average annual rainstorm rainfall was greater than 300 mm.Songtao in Tongren faced dual risks of heavy rain and high temperature at the mature stage.