成渝地区双城经济圈高等教育—科技创新—经济发展动态耦合协同研究

A Research on the Dynamic Coupling and Synergy of Higher Education,Scientific and Technological Innovation and Economic Development in the Two Urban Economic Circles in Chengdu and Chongqing

高等教育—科技创新—经济发展耦合协同是区域经济建设的基本要求。本研究基于2014-2019年成渝地区22个市(州)的面板数据,通过构造耦合协调度模型、GM(1,1)预测模型和Tobit回归模型分析高等教育—科技创新—经济发展的动态耦合关系。结果表明:时序上各市(州)耦合协调度变动趋势较为稳定,总体呈“倒M”型上升趋势,空间上严重失调市(州)由2014年的11个减少至2019年的8个,中度失调市(州)由7个上升至9个,优质协调市(州)由1个上升至2个。未来五年成渝地区耦合协调度将实现稳步提升,但整体仍处于中度失调阶段且地区间发展差异将更加明显。从影响因素看,高校人力资本对第二、第三梯队耦合协调度的回归系数均显著为正,科技创新能力和地区财政实力对三大梯队耦合协调度均有促进作用,而城镇化水平对第二梯队耦合协调度有阻碍作用。要实现三元子系统深度融合,需要进一步提升高等教育质量、加快科技成果转化和发挥核心城市的扩散效应。

Based on the panel data of 22 citiesor prefecturesin Chengdu and Chongqing from 2014 to 2019,this study analyzes the dynamic coupling relationship between higher education,scientific and technological innovation and economic development,which are the basic requirements of regional economic development,by constructing coupling coordination degree model,GM(1,1)prediction model and Tobit model.The results show that the changing trend of coupling coordination degree of cities(prefectures)is relatively stable in time sequence,with an overall upward trend of“inverted-M”.In the spatial stage,the number of cities(prefectures)in serious imbalance decreased from 11 in 2014 to 8 in 2019;the number of cities in moderate imbalance increased from 7 to 9;and the number of quality-coordinated cities(prefectures)increased from 1 to 2.It s expected that the coupling and coordination degree of Chengdu Chongqing region will be steadily improved over the next five years,but the whole will be still in the stage of moderate imbalance,and the development differences between regions will be more obvious.From the perspective of influencing factors,the regression coefficients of university human capital on the coupling and coordination degree of the second and third echelons are significantly positive.Besides,scientific and technological innovation ability and regional financial strength promote the coupling and coordination degree of the three echelons,while the level of urbanization hinders the coupling and coordination degree of the second echelon.To realize deep integration of three-way subsystem,it is required that we improve the quality of higher education,accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements,and give full play the effect of core cities.