贸易政策不确定性下政府研发补贴对高技术产品出口的影响

The Impact of Government R&D Subsidies on the Export of High-tech Products under the Trade Policy Uncertainty

采用2003—2017年国家(地区)层面数据考察贸易政策不确定性下政府研发补贴对高技术产品出口的影响。研究发现:在贸易政策不确定性加大情况下,政府研发补贴能有效缓解贸易政策不确定性对高技术产品出口市场份额、出口种类和数量的消极影响。进一步分析发现,与高收入国家(地区)相比,政府研发补贴更有利于缓解贸易政策不确定性对中国出口到中等收入国家产品数量的不利影响。此外,研究发现政府研发补贴在国际金融危机后开始发挥缓解贸易政策不确定性对出口数量负面影响的积极作用。基于以上结论,从完善研发补贴政策、推动贸易自由化和出口市场多元化方面提出针对性的政策建议。

This paper uses national(regional) data from 2003 to 2017 to investigate the impact of government R&D subsidies on the export of high-tech products under the trade policy uncertainty. The study finds that in the context of increased trade policy uncertainty, government R&D subsidies can effectively alleviate the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export market share, export types and quantity of high-tech products. Further analysis shows that, compared with high-income countries(regions), government R&D subsidies are more conducive to alleviating the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the quantity of Chinese exports to middle-income countries(regions). In addition, the study indicates that government R&D subsidies begin to play a positive role in mitigating the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on export quantity after the international financial crisis. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations from the perspectives of improving the R&D subsidy, promoting trade liberalization and export market diversification.