人口老龄化对资本积累及经济福利的影响

The Influence of Population Aging on Capital Accumulation and Economic Welfare

人口老龄化不仅给我国养老金制度发展而且也给经济福利改善带来一定挑战,老龄化的影响因素可分为三类:老龄化成因、养老给付制度以及退休年龄规定。根据老龄化成因不同,将老龄化分为生育率下降和寿命延长两类,围绕待遇确定型和缴费确定型两类养老金给付制度,以及强制退休和最优退休两类退休年龄规定,使用一个具有内生退休决策的两期世代交叠模型研究不同养老金给付制度下人口老龄化对资本积累和经济福利的影响。研究结果表明,无论在待遇确定型还是缴费确定型养老金给付制度下,随着生育率下降和寿命延长,通过延迟退休年龄,可以增加资本积累和提高社会经济福利。此外,随着寿命延长增长放缓,而生育率下降迅速,相比之下,缴费确定型养老金制度比待遇确定型养老金制度更能增加资本积累和提高社会经济福利。

Population aging brings a challenge to the pension system and economic benefits.To address this challenge,it is necessary to delve into the influence of ageing on capital accumulation and economic welfare.Aging-related factors can be divided into three categories:the causes of ageing,pensionpayment system and regulation on retirement age.This paper use a two-period overlapping generations model with potentially endogenous retirement decisions to further study the potential economic effects of an ageing population,and it shows that the two causes of aging,i.e.declining fertility or increasing longevity,and the type of pension system,i.e.defined contributions or defined benefits,are important in understanding this impact.Results show that when aging is driven by an increasing longevity,unregulated retirement age systems lead to greater improvements in welfare.In contrast,with decreasing fertility,mandatory retirement systems goes better with defined contributions.