基于新陈代谢灰色系统的宁夏一般工业固体废物产生量预测及对策研究

Research on the Amount Forecast of General Industrial Solid Wastes and and Countermeasures in Ningxia Based on Metabolic Gray System

本文通过使用Matlab数据仿真软件构建GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型,对宁夏"十四五"时期一般工业固体废物产生量进行预测,并对模型的预测精度进行分析。模型精度检验表明,新陈代谢模型精度较高,固体废物产生量预测结果可信度强、可靠性高,该模型适用于一般工业固体废物中长期预测。针对"十四五"时期宁夏一般工业固体废物产生量不断增长的预测结果,提出深入推进固体废物减量化、提高固体废物资源化利用水平、加快固体废物处理处置设施建设的对策。

By using Matlab data simulation software to construct a GM (1,1) metabolism model,this paper predicts the amount of general industrial solid waste generated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in Ningxia,and analyzes the prediction accuracy of the model.The model accuracy test shows that the metabolic model has high accuracy,and the prediction results of solid waste generation have strong credibility and high reliability,this model is suitable for medium and long-term prediction of general industrial solid waste.In response to the forecast results of the ever-increasing amount of general industrial solid waste in Ningxia during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,countermeasures are proposed to further promote solid waste reduction,improve the level of solid waste resource utilization,and speed up the construction of solid waste treatment and disposal facilities.