城旅融合的经济增长空间效应研究——基于空间动态面板数据(SDPD)模型的实证分析

Spatial Effect of Integration of Tourism and New Urbanization on Economic Growth:Empirical Evidence Based on Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model

随着中国进入经济社会转型期,城旅融合作为现代旅游业与新型城镇化协同共促的产物,有助于实现"产""城""人"之间和谐均衡,进而会对经济增长产生无法忽视的影响.本文利用中国2004—2015年30个省份的面板统计数据,采用空间动态面板杜宾模型对城旅融合的经济增长效应进行实证检验.研究结论表明,城旅融合对经济增长的影响具有显著的直接效应与空间溢出效应.影响机制检验显示,市场化进程对城旅融合影响经济增长具有双重正向调节效应,特别是市场化与城旅融合的空间关联互动能够增强城旅融合对经济增长的空间溢出效应;产业结构优化是城旅融合促进经济增长的影响渠道,但此中间机制并不存在空间效应.

As China enters into the period of socio-economic transition, city-tourism integration may have an impact that cannot be ignored on economic growth through achieving a harmonious balance between "industry", "city" and "people", as a synergy between modern tourism and new urbanization. Based on the panel data of China’ s 30 provincial-level regions from 2004 to 2015, this study employs the dynamic spatial panel Durbin model to empirically test the economic growth effect of city-tourism integration. The results show that the effect of city-tourism integration on economic growth not only produces intra-regional spillovers, but also produces inter-regional spillovers. The results on mechanism of the effect show that the marketization process has a dual positive adjustment impact on the economic growth effect of city-tourism integration. Especially, the marketization process interacting spatially with city-tourism integration enhances its spatial spillover effect on economic growth. Industrial structure optimization is the important channel via which urban city-tourism integration promotes economic growth, but this mediating mechanism does not have spatial effects.