经济增长、人力资本与逆周期政策选择的动态效应

Dynamic Effects of Economic Growth,Human Capital,and Countercyclical Policy Choices

本文构建经济增长、人力资本与宏观经济政策互动关系的分析框架,探索经济增长的多重驱动机制,并构建VAR模型,使用1997—2018年宏观季度时间序列数据进行实证检验.研究结果表明:第一,经济增长与人力资本之间具有双向、动态的因果关系,人力资本有助于促进经济增长,同时经济增长也是人力资本提升的重要影响因素;第二,宏观经济政策存在短期和长期效应,从短期来看,财政政策和货币政策表现出明显的逆周期效应,积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策能够拉动经济增长,从长期来看,偏紧的财政政策和稳健适度的货币政策能够通过提升人力资本强化经济增长的动力机制,进而促进经济发展.因而,新形势下要实现中国经济高质量均衡发展,不仅要依靠宏观经济政策,还应针对提升人力资本的痛点,把握宏观经济政策调整变化及相互叠加对城镇和农村人力资本的影响,提高政策的靶向性.

This paper establishes for the first time an analytical framework for the interaction between economic growth,human capital and macroeconomic policies.The study explores the multiple driving mechanisms of economic growth,builds a VAR model,and uses the macro quarterly time series data from 1997 to 2018 to conduct an empirical test.The results show that:firstly,there is a bidirectional dynamic causal relationship between economic growth and human capital.Human capital helps to promote economic growth,and economic growth is also an important factor affecting the promotion of human capital.Secondly,macroeconomic policy has short term and long term effects.In the short term,the fiscal policy and monetary policy showed obvious counter-cyclical effect,and proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy can stimulate the economic growth.In the long term,tight fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy can strengthen the driving mechanism of economic growth by enhancing human capital,and then promote economic development.Therefore,in order to achieve high-quality and balanced development of China's economy under the new situation,we should not only rely on macroeconomic policies,but also grasp the impact of macroeconomic policy adjustment on urban and rural human capital,aiming at the pain points of human capital promotion,and improve the targeting of policies.