国际基准利率改革的宏观效应研究

The Study of the Macro Effect of International Benchmark Interest Rate Reform

在全球国际基准利率改革的大背景下,美国、英国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区基本完成替代利率的遴选,并稳步推进基准利率改革的进程。国际基准利率改革对各国监管部门、金融机构和市场参与者造成深远的影响。美国在基准利率改革的过程中,不仅在期限利率构建、产品定价等方面发生了巨大变化,而且在重新掌握美元定价权后,美国货币政策传导及其外溢效应等方面面临重塑。本文在分析主要国家和地区替代利率改革最新进展及可能引发风险的基础上,对美元定价权从离岸市场回归在岸市场的宏观效应进行探讨,并对如何构建人民币定价体系进行分析。本文认为,我国应完善基准利率体系的构建,明确人民币定价体系路径的选择,抓紧人民币基准利率体系构建的顶层设计,充分发挥衍生品市场的辅助作用,掌握在岸人民币定价权。

In the context of the global international benchmark interest rate reform, the United States, the United Kingdom,the European Union, Japan and other countries and regions have basically completed the selection of alternative interest rates and have steadily promoted the reform process. The reform of the international benchmark interest rate has a profound impact on the regulatory authorities, financial institutions and market participants of various countries and regions. In the course of the reform of the benchmark interest rate, the United States has not only undergone tremendous changes in terms of term interest rate construction and product pricing, but also regained control of the US dollar pricing power, while the US monetary policy transmission and spillover effects are also in the reshaping process. Based on the analysis of the latest developments and possible risks of alternative interest rate reforms in major countries and regions, this paper discusses the macro effect of the return of the US dollar pricing power from the offshore market to the onshore market, and analyzes the enlightenment of building my country’s renminbi pricing system. This article believes that my country should improve the construction of the benchmark interest rate system and the choice of the path of the RMB pricing system, pay close attention to the top-level design of the construction of the RMB benchmark interest rate system, give full play to the auxiliary role of the derivatives market, and control the onshore RMB pricing power.