基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS精准预测湖南省杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区

Accurately Predicting Suitable Ecological Distributions for Planting Superior Varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata from Hunan Province in Hubei Province Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS

为充分发挥湖南省杉木(Cunninghamia lanceolata)良种和湖北省造林地立地条件的优势,为湖北省杉木良种造林提供技术支持,运用MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)软件建模,对湖南省杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区进行精准预测,分析并确定影响该杉木良种生长的主导气候因子。结果表明,MaxEnt模型对同一适宜引种生态区的预测精度高,模型预测的训练和测试样本AUC均值均大于0.7。杉木良种在湖北省的中适生区面积为622618 hm^(2),低适生区面积为5942618 hm^(2)。累年年最小降水量和累年年日照时数是影响杉木良种适宜引种生态区分布的主导气候因子。MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS建模在杉木良种精准引种起到前瞻作用,可避免盲目引种,获得良好的引种效果。

In order to give a full play to advantages of superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata from Hunan province as well as advantages of site conditions of afforestation land in Hubei province,and provide technical support for afforestation of C.lanceolata superior varieties in Hubei province,suitable ecological distributions in Hubei province for planting superior varieties of C.lanceolata from Hunan province were accurately predicted by using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software.Dominant climatic factors affecting growth of C.lanceolata were determined.Results showed that suitable ecological distributions could be accurately predicted in Hubei province by using MaxEnt model,with mean AUC more than 0.7 of model predicted sample data and test data.Medium suitable regions for superior varieties of C.lanceolata covered an area of 622618 hm^(2),while low suitable regions covered an area of 5942618 hm^(2).Annual minimum precipitation and annual sunshine hours were dominant climatic factors to determine suitable ecological distributions for superior varieties of C.lanceolata.Modeling of MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software played a forward-looking role in precise introduction of superior varieties of C.lanceolata,which could avoid blind introduction and obtain great introduction effect.