中国农业生产方式的变迁探究——基于微观农户要素投入视角

The Shift of Agricultural Production Growth Path in China:Based on the Micro Perspective of Farm Input

本文基于1995~2016年的全国微观农户数据,从要素投入视角来考察农户生产方式的变化情况,测算并比较了土地、劳动力、化肥、农药、地膜、种苗、机械等各主要投入要素的产出弹性及产出增长贡献。研究发现,在时间序列上中国农户的农业生产方式已经历了由主要依靠劳动力等传统农资演变为主要依赖化肥等化学农资的替代和转变过程。但目前,各类化学农资对产出的增长动力已开始减弱。即使不考虑其负外部性导致的环境成本,单纯在经济意义上,当前主要化学农资的施用成本也已超过其可带来的产出收益。因此,新的生产方式转变节点已出现。在保障产出安全的前提下,可通过要素间配置的综合调整来实现。具体地,在适度规模经营的基础上以依赖良种和机械化投入为主,将是未来农业生产方式绿色化转型可能的路径和方向。

Based on the national micro rural household's data from 1995 to 2016,this paper examines the shift of agricultural production growth path,and calculates the output elasticity and output growth contribution of major input factors,such as land,labor,fertilizer,pesticide,plastie film,seed and machinery,etc.It is found that the agricultural production mode in China has experienced one transformation.The driving force of output growth has shifted from the traditional inputs which represented by labor force to chemical inputs,such as chemical fertilizers.However,the contributions of chemical inputs started to weaken gradually.Even if without considering the environmental costs,the economic costs of chemical fertilizer and pesticeides have become greater than their output benefits.Therefore,it's critical to find a new production mode.The greener and more sustainable production can be achieved through reallocating production factors among farmers without threatening food security.Speifically,we can pursue the agricultural output growth through inereasing the land size of small farmers,adopting superior seeds and advanced agricultural machinery.