考虑预测误差的风电有功功率控制策略

Active power control of wind power considering power forecasting error

针对风力发电功率预测误差可能导致功率控制无法满足控制目标的问题,基于不同新能源电站功率预测误差和置信区间的差异,提出一种风电场有功功率优化控制策略。该策略利用历史数据评估风电功率预测误差分布和置信区间,引入置信区间约束建立风电有功优化模型实现有功分配,实现具有不对称误差分布的各风电场之间的预测误差互补。结合对国内某省风电基地实际数据设计仿真算例,验证了所提策略的合理性和有效性,结果表明:所提方法能够有效改善风电有功功率控制性能,仿真算例中的控制偏差可减小约10%,有助于降低风电有功控制缺额的风险。

The power control can not meet the control target due to the prediction error of wind power generation.Based on the difference of power prediction error and confidence interval between different new energy power stations,an optimal control strategy for active power of wind farms was proposed.The strategy used historical data to evaluate the prediction error distribution and confidence interval of wind power,and introduced confidence interval constraints to establish a wind power active optimization model to realize active power distribution,so as to realize the complementary prediction errors among wind farms with asymmetric error distribution.Combined with the actual data of a wind power based in a province in China,a simulation example was designed to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the control performance of wind power active power,and the control deviation in the simulation example can be reduced by about 10%,which is helpful to reduce the risk of wind power active power control deficiency.