“十四五”时期中国经济的增长收敛与发展前景

Growth Convergence and Development Prospects of China's Economy in the 14^(th) FYP

贸易摩擦和人口老龄化背景下中国经济的发展前景是学界和政府部门普遍关注的重要问题。通过实证检验贸易与金融开放对经济增长绩效和经济增长收敛的异质性影响,并采用开放经济体增长收敛模型,考察“十四五”时期我国经济潜在增长率及增长收敛的决定因素,可发现:“十四五”时期我国人均GDP潜在增速将从5.5%逐渐下降到5.0%;由于老龄化导致人口增长逐渐由正转负,我国GDP潜在增速将从5.8%逐渐下降到5.0%。对外开放尤其是贸易开放是发展中国家成功向高收入经济体收敛的前提条件,城市化进程和人力资本积累会显著提高经济收敛能力,而人口老龄化将成为我国可持续增长的制约因素。我国要进一步开放和改革国内市场,积极采取措施应对老龄化冲击,发挥城市化和人力资本的“双引擎”作用,促进经济的高质量发展。

Trade frictions and development prospects of China’s economy in the context of aging population are important issues of major concerns among the academia and policy makers.This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of trade openness and financial openness on growth convergence,and investigates the growth prospects of Chinese economy in the 14^(th) FYP period by employing a catch up model with technology spillovers.Projections under different scenarios show that during 2021-2025 per capita GDP growth of China will drop gradually from 5.5%to 5.0%,and potential GDP growth will gradually decrease from 5.8%to 5.0%due to the aging population which leads to a negative increase of population.Moreover,we find that trade openness,rather than financial openness is a precondition for developing countries to have a successful convergence of high-income economies.While aging population is becoming a major challenge,accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization will promote the ability of economic convergence for China.China will further open and reform internal markets,take active measures to deal with the problem of aging population,and make good use of urbanization and human capital so as to facilitate the high-quality development of economy.