“十四五”时期高等教育与就业关系的态势及特征——基于马尔科夫链和灰色预测模型的研判

The Trend and Features of the Relation Between Higher Education and Employment in Fourteenth Five-year Plan——Research and Judgment on Markov Chain and Grey Prediction Model

高等教育与就业关系是教育内部规律和外部规律及其互动关系的具体反映,具体表征为二者关系的社会适应性和个体确定性。以毕业生就业规模匹配度、结构匹配度及毕业生就业率、就业对口率、就业收入偏离率为测度指标,计算出2002-2019年高等教育与就业关系的指标测度值,运用马尔科夫链和灰色预测模型对“十四五”时期高等教育与就业关系进行分析研判。研究表明,“十四五”时期毕业生就业规模匹配度将从下降转向持续回升,就业结构匹配度维持较高水平,就业率稍许回落但维持较高水平,就业对口率呈现较低水平,就业收入偏离率逐步下降。为此,“十四五”时期高等教育与就业关系的建构应当双向发力,综合施策,以提高高校毕业生就业规模和结构匹配度,增强高等教育与就业的确定性。

The relationship between higher education and employment is a concrete reflection of the internal and external laws of education and their interactive relationship.It is specifically characterized by the social adaptability and individual certainty.This paper used graduates’employment scale matching degree,graduates’employment structure matching degree,graduates’employment rate,graduates’employment matching rate and graduates’employment deviation rate to calculate the index measurement value of the relationship between higher education and employment from 2002 to 2019.Then it was intended to analyze their relationship during the period of“the 14th five-year plan”by using Markov Chain and Grey Prediction Model.We found that the graduates’employment scale matching degree,during the period of the 14th five-year plan,will experience a shift from decline to sustained recovery,graduates’employment structure matching degree will remain at a high level,graduates’employment rate will fall slightly but maintain a high level,graduates’employment matching rate will show a low level and graduates’employment deviation rate will gradually decrease.Therefore,to improve the graduates’employment scale and structure matching degree,enhance the certainty of higher education and employment.We believe that comprehensive measures should be taken to construct the relationship between higher education and employment during the period of the“14th five-year plan”.