中国人口流失的影响因素研究——基于空间计量分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of Population Loss in China——Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis

中国人口流失问题已日趋常态化,如何有效均衡人力资源利用率与城市空间承载力成为各界关注的重点。本文在构建人口流失影响因素评价指标体系的基础上,从空间视阈角度分析人口流失影响因素的空间交互效应。结果表明:中心地区人口流失与本地区的产业结构升级呈短暂性的正相关关系;经济发展水平、公共服务水平提升对本地区人口流失的正向、负向影响并不稳定,这主要与地区经济基础条件相关;邻近地区城市等级和产业结构现阶段并不会显著带动中心地区人口的大量流失,但其公共服务水平与经济发展水平的提升是加速中心地区人口流失的显著影响因素;同时邻近地区人口流失会同步带动中心地区的人口流失。

The problem of population loss in China has become more and more normal. How to effectively balance the utilization rate of human resources and the carrying capacity of urban space has become the focus of attention. Based on the construction of the evaluation index system of the influencing factors of population loss, this paper analyzes the spatial interaction effect of the influencing factors of population loss from the perspective of spatial threshold. The results show that there is a transient positive correlation between population loss in the central area and the upgrading of industrial structure;The positive and negative effects of the improvement of economic development level and public service level on population loss in this region are not stable, which is mainly related to the basic conditions of regional economy;At present,the urban level and industrial structure of adjacent areas will not significantly drive the massive loss of population in the central area, but the improvement of its public service level and economic development level is a significant factor to accelerate the loss of population in the central area;At the same time, the population loss in adjacent areas will simultaneously drive the population loss in central areas.