我国过度教育问题的宏观经济环境因素分析——基于ISCO-ISCED对接法

An Analysis of Macroeconomic Environment Factors of China’s Over Education——Based on Isco-Isced Docking Method

过度教育问题既造成了人力资本的闲置也导致稀缺教育资源的浪费。本文基于人力资本信号理论,使用CGSS居民调查数据,通过ISCO-ISCED对接法识别样本是否发生过度教育,借鉴前人研究控制其他影响因素,建立混合面板logistic模型,考察宏观经济环境与劳动力市场供需情况与过度教育发生之间的关系。研究发现:经济增长对过度教育发生有负向影响,失业率对过度教育发生有正向影响。使用中国就业市场景气指数作为替代变量来进行稳健性检验,发现就业市场景气程度对过度教育发生负向影响,验证了理论结论。

The problem of overeducation not only causes the idle of human capital but also causes the waste of scarce educational resources. Based on the signal theory of human capital, this paper USES CGSS resident survey data to identify whether over-education occurs in samples through isco-isced docking method, draws on previous studies to control other influencing factors, establishes mixed panel logistic model, and investigates the relationship between macroeconomic environment and the supply and demand situation of labor market and the occurrence of over-education. The study found that: economic growth has a negative impact on the occurrence of overeducation, unemployment has a positive impact on the occurrence of overeducation. Using China’s employment market prosperity index as a substitute variable for robustness test, it is found that the degree of employment market prosperity has a negative impact on overeducation, which confirms the theoretical conclusion.