日本平成时代的历史样态与基因演绎——一种政治社会学的分析

The Historical Pattern and Gene Deduction of Japan’s Heisei Era——An Analysis of Political Sociology

自近代以来,日本经历了五个不同的年代,即明治时代、大正时代、昭和时代、平成时代、令和时代。在平成时代,日本形成特有的高欲望政治、低欲望社会的"不均衡"结构。一方面,少子高龄化问题严重,经济持续低迷不振;另一方面,进入高欲望政治的轨道,出现自民党"一强多弱"的政治格局,并呈现出以安倍首相等为代表的强势领导人"一极政治"的样态。造成政治社会不均衡结构的根本原因在于平成日本独特的社会、经济、政治文化等因素的互动发展。日本平成时代的政治社会样态至少表现出以下三个重要特征:后现代性、不均衡性、后溢性。平成时代之后的令和时代具有更多的不确切性因素,预计将因循低欲望社会与中等欲望政治的"不均衡"结构继续发展下去。

Since modern times,Japan has experienced five different eras,namely,Meiji era,Taisho era,Showa era,Heisei era,Reiwa era.In the Heisei era,Japan formed a unique"unbalanced"structure of high desire politics and low desire society.On the one hand,Japan’s declining birthrate and aging population are serious,and the economy continues to be depressed;On the other hand,Japan has entered the track of high desire politics,showing the political pattern of"one party strong and many opposition party weak"of the Liberal Democratic Party’s absolute dominance,and showing the state of"one pole politics"of the strong leader represented by Abe’s equality.The fundamental reason for the unbalanced structure of politics and society lies in the interactive development of Japan’s unique social,economic,political and cultural factors.It shows at least the following three important characteristics:post modernity,imbalance and post overflow.The Heisei era has become a solid historical gene of the Reiwa era.Compared with the Heisei era,the Reiwa era has more uncertain factors.It is expected that the Reiwa era will continue to develop according to the"unbalanced"structure of low desire society and medium desire politics.