台风灾害下配电系统受损评估研究

A Study on Damage Evaluation of Power Distribution System under Typhoon Disaster

台风灾害会造成配电系统多个元件同时故障而导致大面积用户停电。为研究台风灾害对于配电系统的破坏影响,提出台风灾害下配电系统受损情况评估方法。为描述台风特征对元件故障概率的影响,基于台风影响历史数据,使用随机森林算法建立元件脆弱性曲线。在元件模型建立后,使用时序蒙特卡洛模拟法评估配电系统的实时和累计电量及用户损失。为提升评估效率,引入故障模式后果分析法,使用最小路法生成故障影响报表,更快地确定失电负荷节点。最后通过RBTS-BUS6测试系统和广州地区的实际系统进行算例分析,验证了所提算法的有效性。结果表明:台风对配电网的影响具有延时性,配电系统受损情况与元件维修时间和维修资源数量相关。

Typhoon disaster will cause the simultaneous failure of multiple components of the power distribution system,resulting in power outages in large areas of users.To study the damage impact of typhoon disaster on the distribution system,this paper proposes an evaluation method for the damages of the power distribution system under typhoon disaster.The component vulnerability curve was established by random forest algorithm based on the historical typhoon impact data to describe the influence of typhoon characteristics on component failure probability.After the component model is established,the real-time and accumulative power and customer loss of the distribution system are evaluated by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method.To improve the evaluation efficiency,the failure mode and effect analysis method is introduced,and the minimal path method is used to generate the failure impact table,so as to determine the power failure load node more efficiently.Finally,the RBTS-BUS6 test system and an actual system in Guangzhou area are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.