养老责任秩序的选择逻辑及实证分析——基于CGSS(2015)数据

The Selection Logic and Empirical Analysis of Pension Responsibility Order——Based on CGSS(2015)data

在人口老龄化以及家庭规模普遍缩小等背景下,解决居民养老难题是保障民生、促进社会和谐的应有之义。但是,当前我国仍存在着养老责任主体定位不清、居民养老责任观念模糊等问题,因此,有必要探讨养老责任秩序的选择逻辑,以明确各养老主体定位并引导居民养老责任认知。自我、家庭、社会是当前具有共识的主要养老主体,在构建新时期我国养老责任体系时需明确两个问题:一是养老责任秩序选择逻辑中责任主体的排序问题,依据需求溢出理论分析,各养老主体责任应当有先后,并遵循着自我养老-家庭养老-社会养老的顺序;二是各养老主体间责任归属的依据问题,根据以往文献研究以及相关理论可推断,若经济状况与健康情况均有利于老年人化解养老风险,则自我养老应是老年人养老方式首选,反之养老责任转移给家庭,若家庭的子女赡养和经济状况均难以解决转移的养老风险,就需要政府和社会主体承担起养老责任。依照上述逻辑,进一步使用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015年数据,运用多项有序Logit回归,将养老责任转移视为有序因变量,选择影响养老风险转移的因素如自身健康情况、家庭子女个数等作为自变量,对养老责任秩序的选择逻辑进行实证分析,并得出以下结论:城市居民养老责任向外转移的程度要比农村居民高;居民年龄越大,受教育程度越高,养老责任向外转移的程度越高;身体健康状况越差,家庭经济状况越差,居民越倾向于养老责任向外转移;而且居民对政府为老年人提供保障的责任期望越高,养老责任向外转移得越严重。其他的因素如子女数和是否参加基本养老保险未产生显著影响,实证分析的结论更直观地表明了居民对于养老责任主体的选择逻辑以及影响因素,也为养老政策设计的应然状态提供了方向。基于逻辑以及实证分析结论,本研究提出以下政策建议:(1)要明晰各主体责任边界,正确引导居民对政府以及家庭的养老责任期望。(2)优先解决老年弱势群体的养老风险。(3)合理规划城乡养老服务资源。(4)多元主体共建"健康中国"。(5)完善多层次养老保障体系。

Under the background of population aging and general reduction of family size, solving the problem of providing for the elderly is the due meaning of ensuring people’s livelihood and promoting social harmony. However, at present, there are still some problems in China, such as unclear position of the subject of pension responsibility and fuzzy concept of residents’ pension responsibility. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the selection logic of pension responsibility order so as to clarify the position of each pension subject and guide residents’ cognition of pension responsibility. Residents, families and society are recognized as the main pension subjects. When building China’s pension responsibility system in the new era, two problems need to be clarified: one is the ranking of responsibility subjects in the pension responsibility selection logic. Based on the viewpoint of demand spillover theory, it is reasonable that the responsibilities of each pension subject follow priorities: residents are the first responsible subject to bear the responsibility of providing for themselves when they are old, families are the second and society is the third. Another problem is the basis of responsibility attribution among three pension subjects. According to previous literature research and relevant theories, we have evidence to believe if the economic and health conditions are advantageous to the elderly to resolve the pension risk, self pension should be the first choice for the elderly. On the contrary, the pension responsibility is transferred to their family. If the family’s chil d(ren) support and economic conditions are difficult to solve the transferred pension risk, the government and social subjects are required to assume the responsibility of providing for the aged. Based on the above logic, this study uses the 2015 data of China General Social Survey(CGSS) and multiple ordered logit regression to regard the transfer of pension responsibility as an ordered dependent variable, and selects the factors affecting the transfer of pension risk, such as residents’ own health status and the number of family’s children, as independent variables to make an empirical analysis on the selection logic of pension responsibility, the following conclusions are drawn: the degree of outward transfer of pension responsibility of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents;the older the residents are, the higher their education level is, the higher the degree of outward transfer of pension responsibility is;the worse the health condition is, the worse the family economic condition is, the higher the degree of outward transfer of pension responsibility is;and the higher the residents’ expectation of the government’s responsibility to provide security for the elderly, the more serious the outward transfer of pension responsibility is. Other factors such as the number of children and whether basic endowment insurance is covered have no significant impact. The conclusion of empirical analysis shows the residents’ choice logic and influence factors for the choice of pension subject more intuitively, and also provides a direction for the what-ought-to-be state of the elderly policy design. Based on the conclusion of logical and empirical analysis,this study puts forward the following policy suggestions: 1) we should clarify the responsibility boundary of each subject and correctly guide residents’ expectations for the pension responsibility of the government and families. 2) priority should be given to solving the pension risk of vulnerable elderly groups. 3) we should plan the resources of the aged services in urban and rural areas rationally. 4) we should build "health China" with multiple subjects. 5) we should improve the multi-level elderly care systems.