新时期农户种粮积极性及其影响因素——基于黑豫鲁晋四省农户调研数据的实证分析

Current Situation and Influencing Factors of Farmers'Enthusiasms in Growing Grain in New Period-Empirical Analysis Based on Survey Data of Farmers of Four Provinces of Heilongjiang,Henan,Shandong and Shanxi

在国际国内形势的新变化下,保护和调动农民种粮积极性对保障国家粮食安全和社会经济健康发展具有十分重要的意义。基于黑龙江、河南、山东和山西四省917份种粮农户的问卷调查数据,运用无序多分类Logistic模型,从农户个体、家庭、种粮成本收益、认知和外部环境特征五个方面探究农户种粮积极性影响因素。结果表明,当前农户种粮积极性不高,“一般”和“较低”比例占78.73%,且在不同地区及同一地区内部之间均存在明显差异;年龄、受教育程度、耕地面积、土地流转、种粮补贴金额满意度、生产资料价格接受度、从事粮食生产认知、参加粮食生产技术培训和政府投资粮食生产正向影响农户种粮积极性;农田地块分散程度、务农与外出务工对改善生活条件的认知负向影响农户种粮积极性;不同类型农户种粮积极性的影响因素存在较大差异。据此,提出相关政策建议以充分保护和调动农户种粮积极性,稳定国家粮食生产。

Under the new changes in the international and domestic situations,protecting and mobilizing farmers'enthusiasms for grain production have a great significance for ensuring national food security and healthy development of society and economy.Based on the questionnaire survey data of 917 farmers of Heilongjiang,Henan,Shandong and Shanxi provinces,the disordered multi-classification logistic model was used,from the five aspects of individual characteristics of farmers,family characteristics,cost and benefit characteristics of growing grain,cognitive characteristics and external environment characteristics to make empirical analysis of factors affecting farmers'enthusiasms for grain production.The research results showed that:The current farmers were not very enthusiastic about growing grain,the proportions of"average"and"low"accounted for 78.73%,and there were obvious differences in different regions and within the same region.Age,education level,arable land area,land transfer,satisfaction with grain growth subsidy,price acceptance of production materials,attitude towards grain production,participation in grain production technology training,and government investment in grain production had a positive influence of farmers'enthusiasms for grain production.The degree of dispersion of farmland and the perception of farming and migrant workers to improve living conditions had a negative influence of farmers'enthusiasms for grain production.The influencing factors of different types of farmers'enthusiasms for growing grain were quite different.Accordingly,relevant policy recommendations were put forward to fully mobilize farmers'enthusiasms for grain production and stabilize grain production in China.